The number of low-energy households in the UK will double in a year if Ukraine’s crisis leads to higher energy bills, charities warn.
Analysts predict the war has pushed up wholesale prices and could mean the average UK domestic bill will hit £3,000 in October.
National Energy Action said it would leave 8.5 million households with serious financial difficulties due to fuel bills.
That would be twice as much as in the previous year, which corresponds to 30% of households.
Charity Age UK said such an increase would have a “devastating” impact on the health and well-being of older people, many of whom could go for weeks without heating.
The cost of gas and electricity for the typical household, whose tariff is regulated by energy regulator Ofgem’s price cap in England, Wales and Scotland, has already risen by 54% to almost £2,000 since the beginning of April. Prices are also rising sharply in Northern Ireland.
A number of energy analysts have predicted that the conflict in Ukraine and the impact of Russian gas supplies could have a relatively lasting impact on wholesale energy prices.
UK suppliers, and ultimately consumers, are not immune to these global price hikes, even though Russia supplies only around 5% of UK gas supply.
Analysts have hinted that this could be reflected in Ofgem’s next price cap calculation, which would come into effect in early October. Many, including the suppliers’ own trade organisation, say the average household bill reaches or could reach nearly £3,000 a year.
National Energy Action, which advocates for warm, dry homes, said the number of households in energy poverty will already rise to 6.5 million after April’s price spike, from 4 million in October 2021.
That would rise again to £8.5million in October this year when the typical bill rises to £3,000. That’s a possibility, but far from a certainty given the volatility of the war, the international picture, and wholesale prices.
The charity’s definition of fuel poverty is a household that must spend more than 10% of its household income on fuel to heat its home to a satisfactory standard. Similar definitions are used officially in parts of the UK, although in England the government’s definition of fuel poverty is a more complex calculation.
When George Mycock moved to London from Stoke-on-Trent, he ended up paying £950 a month for a room in a four-bedroom flat share. Including bills, it makes up about 70% of his monthly income.
His housemates have already seen the bills increase by between £50 and £100 each in recent months. But he says the rise in energy bills is “scary”.
“We don’t know how much we have to pay [on our default tariff]”, he says. “It has thrown people into insecurity.”
- Read more: How to deal with rising prices
National Energy Action has joined 50 charity and campaign groups to plead for government support for struggling billpayers.
The coalition has claimed further price hikes could result in more people dying prematurely across the UK next winter.
“This is a disaster and will inevitably result in more needless deaths throughout the winter. Government must act now to protect those most vulnerable and save lives,” said Adam Scorer, executive director of National Energy Action.
- Bill shock as energy price hikes hit home
- What help with invoices is available in my council tax class?
A government spokeswoman said: “It is difficult to predict what the longer-term impact of the current situation in Ukraine will be on energy costs. However, the energy price cap will continue to protect millions of customers from volatile global gas prices
“We are also taking decisive action to help more than 27 million households facing rising energy bills with a £200 reduction in bills this autumn and a £150 non-refundable reduction in council tax bills.”
Add Comment