Ukraine: Are arms shipments from the West making a difference?

The Ukrainian military has released several videos showing Russian helicopters being shot down by surface-to-air missiles.

One from last week shows a Russian helicopter flying low just above the tree line – hoping to avoid what will happen next. Following its path is the smoke plume of a surface-to-air missile. The missile found its target within seconds. On impact, the Russian helicopter falls to the ground before bursting into a fireball

Russian planes are shot down by Ukrainian forces – like the video above, this video shows a jet hit near Kharkiv – and military analysts believe there is evidence recently Western-supplied weapons are already being used.

Justin Bronk, research associate for air forces at the Royal United Services Institute, says that so far there has been visual confirmation of at least 20 downed Russian planes in Ukraine – both helicopters and jets. That’s significantly less than claimed by Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, which says it crashed 48 Russian planes and 80 helicopters. But even the lower number shows that Russia has been fighting for supremacy in the skies.

Ukraine has also suffered casualties. But British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told the BBC that Russia has so far failed to destroy the country’s air defenses and air force.

Before the war began, Ukraine’s military aircraft were at least three to one inferior to those amassed on the border with Russia.

Mr Wallace said Ukraine’s ability to keep some of its air defenses intact is already forcing Russian planes to fly at night to avoid detection.

Shoulder-launched air defense missiles, also known as manpads (portable air defense systems), are just one of the weapons Western nations have supplied to Ukraine. These include the infamous US-made Stinger surface-to-air missiles – a scourge of Soviet aircraft during the 1980s occupation of Afghanistan.

Exact numbers are hard to come by. Last week, Mr Wallace told the BBC the West had now supplied “thousands” of anti-tank weapons and “over a thousand” Stingers. CNN, citing a US defense official, put the total at 17,000 anti-tank weapons and 2,000 Stingers sent by US and NATO allies.

Britain and America had supplied arms to Ukraine before the invasion began on February 24, with the UK supplying 2,000 light anti-tank missiles (Nlaws). Responding to reports that they have already been used to destroy Russian tank columns, Mr Wallace said: “We have anecdotal evidence to corroborate this”.

However, most countries only began sending weapons in response to the Russian invasion. A total of 14 nations have supplied weapons. These include Sweden and Finland, both of which have long histories of neutrality and are not members of NATO. But both have sent thousands of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine.

Germany has delivered 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles. The Baltic states have also supplied thousands of weapons, including Stingers and Javelin missiles, one of the world’s most effective anti-tank weapons with a range of 2.5 km (1.5 miles). According to Ukraine, it has already successfully destroyed several Russian T-72 tanks.

Recent shipments of arms also include tens of thousands of assault rifles and machine guns, anti-tank mines and hundreds of tons of ammunition, as well as body armor and helmets, and medical supplies.

How do the guns get through?

The UK says it is helping to “facilitate” supplies of these weapons. However, Western officials are giving no details on how the shipments are getting through.

But it’s no secret that while Russia’s military operations have been concentrated in eastern Ukraine, the flow of people and supplies from the west of the country has continued via neighboring European countries. The BBC has spoken to the defense ministries of Estonia, Sweden and Denmark, all of whom have confirmed their arms shipments have been traced and have successfully reached Ukraine in recent weeks.

So how much of a difference do these weapon shipments make?

Western-supplied weapons can make a difference, but only if Ukraine continues to have armed forces capable of using them.

According to Bronk, Ukraine’s ability to retain some of its older Soviet-era air defense systems – which have longer range – has forced Russian planes to fly lower. But that makes them more vulnerable to the shorter-range surface-to-air missiles supplied by the West.

Without these longer-range air defense systems, Russian aircraft could fly higher to avoid the dangers of shorter-range air defenses.

Meanwhile, America and European allies are trying to increase arms sales to Ukraine. There may be a limited opportunity before Russia attempts to target arms shipments.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he had held talks with Poland over supplying the Ukrainian Air Force with Russian-made Mig fighter jets. But even if that happened, Ukraine would still need trained pilots to fly them.

The supply of Western weapons helps, but you still need an army that knows how to use them.