The head of the World Food Programme, David Beasley, has warned that the conflict in Ukraine could send global food prices skyrocketing, with disastrous effects on the world’s poorest.
Ukraine and Russia are both major exporters of staple foods, and the war has already hit crop production and pushed up prices
Mr Beasley said it would put more people at risk of starvation around the world.
“Just when you think hell on earth can’t get any worse, it does,” he said.
Russia and Ukraine, once dubbed the “breadbasket of Europe,” export about a quarter of the world’s wheat and half of its sunflower products, such as seeds and oil. Ukraine also sells a lot of corn worldwide.
Analysts have warned war could hurt grain production and even double global wheat prices.
Mr Beasley told BBC World Service’s Business Daily program that the number of people at risk of starvation around the world had already risen from 80 million to 276 million in the four years before the Russian invasion, thanks to what he said calls a “perfect storm” of conflict, climate change, and Corona.
He said certain countries could be particularly hard hit by the current crisis due to the high proportion of grains they are currently importing from the Black Sea region.
“The country of Lebanon, 50% of its grain comes from Ukraine. Yemen, Syria, Tunisia – and I could go on – depend on Ukraine as a breadbasket,” he said.
“So from a breadbasket to now you’re going to have to literally hand out bread to them. It’s just an incredible inversion of reality.”
Yara International, which operates in more than 60 countries, told the BBC that a shortage could severely affect crop yields and lead to “a global food crisis”.
Ukrainian lawyer Ivanna Dorichenko, an expert in international commercial arbitration, said some farmers in Ukraine have already left their fields to take up arms against the Russian invasion.
She told the BBC: “The men who have to work in the countryside, they’re all defending our country right now. Because if they don’t defend the country, there’s nothing to do at a later date, and neither do you. I don’t have a single person at the moment who isn’t trying to help in any way he can.”
Ms Dorichenko said the war has wreaked havoc on supply lines normally used to export agricultural products. The Ukrainian military shut down all merchant shipping at its ports after the Russian invasion.
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“The ships cannot leave the waters, the ships cannot be loaded. It’s practically a war zone. Unfortunately, there is currently nothing that could possibly be shipped from Ukraine.”
She said it means “huge losses” for businesses but also humanitarian efforts because Ukraine can no longer send goods to regions like Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa, and to NGOs like the World Food Program.
With food price inflation already at a critical juncture in some countries before hostilities erupted in Ukraine, South African economist Wandile Sihlobo said he was concerned about the potential impact on grain-importing nations in Africa and beyond.
Mr Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, told the BBC that while steep price hikes could pose a problem in the short term, there could be shortages of key crops.
“Over time, depending on the length and severity of this war, you could start to see shortages in supplies coming into the African continent and this could create shortages. Especially in the North African countries and to some extent in East Africa.”
He added: “If you look at the global food price index, earlier this year it was at multiple highs. This crisis is already contributing to this difficult environment for many consumers, especially in the developing world.”
On Monday, one of the world’s largest fertilizer companies, Yara International, warned that the conflict could hit its industry and further affect food prices.
Fertilizer prices had already risen due to rising wholesale gas prices. Russia also produces vast amounts of nutrients such as potash and phosphate – key components of fertilizers that enable plants and crops to grow.
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