What is going on with the partygate probe?

Before the war in Ukraine, lockdown parties at Downing Street had dominated the news. But while that’s no longer the case, there’s still a lot going on behind the scenes.

We spoke to some of the people being studied, as well as some of the Tory MPs who could ultimately decide Boris Johnson’s fate, to understand what is happening and predict what might happen next.

Partygate may have slipped from the headlines, but the Metropolitan Police’s activities have continued under the radar. Downing Street sources have confirmed that more than 80 questionnaires have been received from aides, civil servants and politicians asking about the events.

We spoke to some of those who attended at least one of the 12 parties police investigated. So far no one has said they have received a fine.

The Met has said it will disclose the number of firm penalty notices it has issued and the nature of rule violations. But they didn’t say when.

Of course, some of the party-goers received questionnaires, while others, interestingly, did not. This could mean police focusing their investigations on only “the most serious and blatant type of violation,” according to then-Police Commissioner Dame Cressida Dick in January.

If this is the case, this can indicate a high number of questionnaires that lead to fines.

And it’s not impossible that the number of people caught in the web is starting to grow. For example, I was told that a civil servant who had been working at his desk while colleagues were drinking regretted having received a questionnaire while his boss had not received it.

Whitehall sources have indicated that some staff have feared they could face multiple fines for attending more than one event under investigation, and some could face larger fines if they are believed to be organizing one event and not just one visited.

Even if Mr Johnson isn’t fined himself, critics say he may face renewed pressure to leave if the scale of the rulebreak is, in the words of a former Cabinet minister, “industrial”.

It’s still not clear when the Met Police will finalize their involvement. But events in Ukraine could delay the process. Tory MP So what about Tory MPs? Before the conflict in Ukraine, the prime minister faced political dangers. After a spate of allegations of irregular gatherings during lockdown, a dozen of his own MPs had publicly called for his resignation and others were considering taking action against him.

He toured the Parliamentary tea-rooms, spoke at meetings of his restless MPs, and the gossip in the corridors of the House of Commons was little different.

What these Conservative MPs think of him is crucial. If 54 – 15% of the parliamentary group – lose faith in him, there would be a vote on whether he would continue as Conservative leader and therefore Prime Minister.

But this week a cabinet minister told me that the war in Ukraine changed everything.

Before that, speculation about his leadership had become almost “a self-fulfilling prophecy,” he said. MEPs faced with negative headlines may have been tempted to “pick the boil” and hold a competition to clean the air.

But now, he said, the whole subject had hardly been mentioned. He believed Mr Johnson’s leadership was secure. The cacophony of concern in the corridors of the Commons was replaced by sombre silence.

Some MPs, who had not asked Mr Johnson to leave, had been preparing should he be fined by police.

The prime minister’s supporters were increasingly confident that this outcome could be avoided. He can claim that No 10 is both his home and office, blurring all lines between work and socializing.

But some now think he doesn’t need to avoid a fine to survive. Allies argue that “Partygate” has now been put into perspective. One of them described the lockdown gatherings as “trivial” compared to the war.

Another condemned the rhetoric and self-righteousness of some of Mr Johnson’s opponents, adding: “What is ‘disgusting’ is what Russia is doing in Ukraine, not whether the PM got a birthday cake on his birthday.”

One MP who wants Mr Johnson to leave said a protracted party leadership contest during a crisis was almost unthinkable, partly because there was no obvious, single candidate – “not a big shot, a Hezza-type character” – to replace him .

And, significantly, a former minister who was on the verge of backing calls for the prime minister’s resignation said he has now changed his mind.

“Even if he gets an FPN (a fixed penalty), those of us who have been waiting for evidence of a rule violation will certainly be concerned, but we will not be prosecuting him.” That was partly because of the feeling that he was the Conflict “OK” handled.

Another was more blunt: Any attempted coup during the conflict would backfire, and the prime minister could win a leadership vote with the pain of a fight with no apparent political gain.

And with attention rightly focused on Ukraine, even some of Mr Johnson’s internal opponents concede that a rebound in poll numbers could dissipate the political storm clouds around him.

Others believe the underlying political climate has not changed dramatically.Downing Street

Mr Johnson defends himself by saying he has already started to reform the way Downing Street is run – that some of the people who organized and attended the controversial events have moved away or left Government altogether – and that there’s a new chief of staff, a new communications director, and new ways of working.

But the effects of Partygate can linger for a long time. I’m told there is resentment among some officials that while the prime minister and senior officials have paid for their own legal advice in completing the Met questionnaires, no assistance has been given to those who cannot afford it.

Some of those who received questionnaires have been subjected to the highest level of security clearance and really do not know if a sentence imposed would mean they could not continue in their roles.

And if the prime minister escapes a fine but a whole bunch of youngsters look like ‘scapegoats’, then that, too, could become politically difficult – playing on the opposition’s narrative that there is ‘one rule for Boris Johnson and another for everyone others” gives “.

The prime minister has returned his questionnaire – but with the government’s focus now on the Ukraine crisis, some officials have asked for the seven-day window for their replies to be extended. And I’m told the Met has granted this.

It is also not yet clear whether the process will be lengthened if some people challenge the fines they have received in court.What’s next?

A former cabinet minister has concluded that “the longer this takes, the greater the potential risk” for the prime minister.

If a fine were issued “in the next few days,” he told me, that would have little impact, but it could get more toxic once coverage of the conflict in Ukraine eases.

“I would say he had a postponement rather than a pardon,” said the ex-minister. “The time frame is shifting through May and maybe even October, December – depending on the events in Ukraine. But the underlying concerns remain.”

Two factors could still hurt Mr Johnson’s leadership, according to a Conservative rebel.

First, public reaction. He does not accept the argument that by focusing on the suffering in Ukraine, voters have “forgiven” the PM the party gate – or forgotten it.

“This problem looks trivial at Westminster. I had a barrage of emails about it in my inbox. Way more than Dominic Cummings,” he said – a reference to the former Prime Minister’s adviser’s infamous lockdown trip to County Durham.

So if an unabridged version of Chief Officer Sue Gray’s report is released after the police investigation is complete, it could spark more public anger, he argues.

But for him, whether or not the prime minister gets a fine is something of a red herring.

He believes what else could bring Mr Johnson down is not attending specific meetings, but whether he misled Parliament – and broke the Ministers’ Code. The Prime Minister was careful in his language.

In December, he told Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer in the House of Commons: “I have been repeatedly assured that the rules have not been broken.”

Well, such reservations may not wash with Mr Johnson’s critics. But while the Ministerial Code states that “ministers who knowingly mislead Parliament will be expected to offer their resignation”, that resignation would normally not be offered to anyone other than the Prime Minister – who ultimately interprets and enforces the code.

Whether Mr Johnson remains in office will ultimately be a political decision, not a legal or procedural one. And right now, his position feels less precarious than before.

A former cabinet colleague of Mr Johnson said that the “conversation in the [House of Commons] Tearoom is how lucky a politician Boris Johnson was”.

Then, after a little pause, he added, “I remember you once said the same thing about David Cameron.”