Two years after the World Health Organization declared coronavirus a global pandemic, new research suggests that around 18.2 million people have died worldwide as a result. This figure is more than three times higher than the figure of almost the WHO 6 million officially informed Deaths by covid-19 until the end of 2021.
Some 1.13 million Americans have died as a result of the pandemic, researchers estimate. In comparison, the current total death toll from COVID-19 reported in the US is around 960,000.
The new figures, published in The Lancet on Thursday, are based on the number of “excess deaths” in countries around the world. The researchers determined how many additional deaths occurred from January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021 by modeling the number of “expected” deaths in years not affected by a global pandemic, compared to the total number of deaths. people who actually died of any cause.
The estimate predates the peak of the Omicron variant in many countries, which has caused large waves of deaths in the United States and elsewhere in recent months.
Many of the additional deaths over the past two years may be directly related to cases of COVID-19. However, the study’s authors say a variety of other factors, ranging from underestimation of infections to the strain of disease in hospitals, could explain the unprecedented number of additional deaths during the pandemic. .
“Further investigation will help reveal how many deaths were directly caused by COVID-19 and how many occurred as an indirect result of the pandemic,” said Dr. Haidong Wang, lead author of the Institute of Metrics and health assessment. a release.
While the United States is generally not among the nations with the worst excess mortality rates in the world, it does have one of the highest total excess deaths in the study. The largest accumulated toll from the pandemic came from India, the US, Russia, Mexico, Brazil, Indonesia and Pakistan.
“These seven countries accounted for more than half of the world’s excess of deaths from COVID-19 over the 24-month period,” the study authors wrote.
The researchers noted that some southern U.S. states were ranked among the worst excess mortality rates for COVID-19 in the world.
For every 100,000 residents, it is estimated that an additional 329.7 deaths occurred in Mississippi during the pandemic, the highest in any state. In the overall estimates of the study, only 21 nations exceeded 300 excess deaths per 100,000 citizens.
More than 12,000 Mississippi residents have died as a result of COVID-19, according to the official Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the highest per capita in any state.
“I think this article highlights the importance of using excess deaths in analyzing the effects of any kind of pandemic or epidemic like this, in order to get an idea of the real and complete impact,” says Robert Anderson. , head of the CDC. branch of mortality statistics.
The study published on Thursday echoes similar figures generated by Anderson’s team, which has been calculating the excess deaths per week during the pandemic in the US.
“As you can see, in some of these countries, there are very few deaths from COVID, but a very large number of excess deaths. , and it’s pretty easy to say. If people are dead, it’s not so easy to say what they died of, “Anderson said.
From January 2022 onwards, the CDC’s own estimate of an excess of deaths during the pandemic exceeded one million earlier this year. Other ongoing research by the agency suggests that the number of Americans who have been infected with coronavirus could double that of official reports.
The current CDC excessive death toll may include some fatalities from other disasters over the past two years, Anderson said. winter storm in texas which caused paralyzing blackouts. However, the vast majority of additional deaths come from COVID-19 cases, which are among the country’s cases. main causes of death.
The agency has also seen substantial changes in other causes of death over the past two years, which could also be related to the virus or its domino effects.
Deaths from heart attacks and strokes have risen beyond pre-pandemic levels, Anderson cited as examples, as well as deaths from dementia and Alzheimer’s disease. COVID-19 has been linked to both cardiovascular i neurological problems, as well as disrupting the ability of physicians to care for non-VOCID patients during waves.
“We have seen a certain decline in deaths from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and this may also be related to the pandemic. These people generally have a high risk of serious COVID effects, and therefore may have died of another way without the pandemic as a result of COPD, “Anderson said.
Looking to the future, Anderson said the CDC planned to continue publishing data on a regular basis, but could soon end the resource-intensive weekly estimates it has been publishing on excessive pandemic deaths.
Anderson predicted that the agency could begin to consider some deaths from COVID-19 as part of the planned deaths each year. The CDC is already looking at changes in mortality from influenza and other endemic diseases, compared to predicted deaths.
Given the length of the pandemic so far, Anderson’s team had to modify its algorithm last year to stabilize its estimates, incorporating additional pre-pandemic historical data.
“When we are modeling this data to try to calculate how many deaths would have occurred in a” normal “year, you must model a certain number of years of data. Anderson said.
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