Can Everton stop scoring goals against Newcastle?

Everton vs Newcastle Chance

The relegation-threatened Everton will be desperate for just their second Premier League win under manager Frank Lampard if it takes on a Newcastle United team that has apparently escaped its own danger of relegation.

While Lampard’s men had some promising home performances – mostly in FA Cup action – the Toffees have lost five of six games in the English Premier League since arriving at Merseyside.

Coincidentally, this started with a 3-1 defeat at Newcastle in early February, which marked the beginning of the Magpies’ own ascension from the danger zone under manager Eddie Howe.

Everton’s win was the second of six in Newcastle’s last eight games. The Magpies were unlucky to be beaten late in a 1-0 defeat at Chelsea this past Sunday, but still came away on Wednesday with 31 points and nine clear of the bottom three in the table.

The Toffees are out of the drop zone based solely on goal difference, sitting 17th on 22 points after their 1-0 home loss last weekend against Wolves.

Lampard has not changed much at Everton

Most Evertonians were less skeptical about Lampard’s arrival than their predecessor Rafa Benitez, due to Benitez’s history with rivals Liverpool. However, the numbers show that Lampard’s Everton were probably worse.

The Toffees have picked up just three points from the Chelsea captain’s six head-to-head matches, up from four points in Benitez’s last six games.

The list of games may have been tougher for Lampard, but he also made his team healthier than Benitez for most of his short reign.

In addition to a 3-0 home win over Leeds United, at a time when the visitors seem to be losing confidence in their own manager Marcelo Bielsa, Everton have created surprisingly little going forward. The Toffees have only shot once in Lampard’s other five league games, creating only 2.4 xG in total.

Everton’s xG difference per 90 minutes fell to -0.58 under Lampard, compared to -0.34 under Benitez. If you delete the Leeds match, the rate in the other players drops to -1.00 per 90 minutes.

If Lampard deserves some leeway, it’s because most Everton winter transfer supplements came before his arrival and possibly without his input.

A shopping spree involving striker Dele Alli and midfielder Donny van der Beek did not make much of an impact. It’s also fair to ask why it was no longer focused on the back line with Yerry Mina’s further injury problems and Michael Keane’s poor form.

Newcastle are fighting for relegation

There have been two points of inflection for Newcastle as the club have more or less escaped relegation.

The first came with manager Howe’s meeting in November. The second came with the closure of the January transfer window and – in particular – a reassuring 3-1 home win over Everton for February to begin.

Overall since Howe’s debut in a 1-1 draw against Norwich City, Newcastle have earned 25 points in 15 games and 1.67 points per game, against a miserable six points in 13 games and 0.46 per trip in the previous 13 games.

Since the window closed, things have gotten a lot better. The Magpies won five and drew one in all seven games, with an average xG difference of +0.46 per 90 minutes.

Unlike Everton, Newcastle have focused a large part of their transfer window on defensive additions. Kieran Trippier and Matt Target in particular helped build a unit that delivered goals even after Howe came on the scene.

Even the weekend loss against Chelsea was proof of that, with Newcastle allowing just 0.8 xG over the confrontation. Much of that game on Kai Havertz’s winner of the 90th minute after a wonderful setup by Jorginho.

BJ Cunningham’s EPL Model Projections

Betting Analysis & Pick

This is a complicated game in some ways. The total numbers throughout the season suggest that a bad fortune is as much debt as bad play for Everton’s position.

If you look at the projections above of our own BJ Cunningham, you would be led to believe that Everton would be the bargain here, in the stereotypical “buy-low” territory.

However, the seasons are not static and considering how much change each side has made this year, the period since New Year’s is a much better indication of who these clubs are. right now.

If I were to play the three-point line, I could hang on to Newcastle due to Everton’s tendency not to draw players, especially at home.

However, what I feel most confident is that Everton just do not have many ideas on the offensive side of the pitch.

Striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin is a shot of his former self when he sees the field, and he’s a question after missing a Sunday illness.

Lampard’s biggest impact seems to have been on Richarlison and it seems to be negative. Under Benitez, Richarlison was one of only two consistent performers you could count on healthy, along with academy product Anthony Gordon.

As for Evertonians hoping this match will be an emotional awakening? I’m not sure why it would be if Sunday did not make it home game against Wolves.

That said, I play a relatively conservative bet, supporting Everton to score no more than one goal with -165 chances and an implicit 62.3% probability. The Toffees have scored a few goals in just one of six EPL games so far since Lampard’s arrival.

Pick: Everton – Team Total Under 1.5 Goals (-165)