Wednesday 16 March 2022 19:05
From:
Bill Esdaile
Bill Esdaile is City AM Racing Editor and Managing Director of Square in the Air.
ET is a real déjà vu from this year’s Ryanair Chase (2.50pm).
Everyone remembers a red-hot Willie Mullins-trained favorite returning to this race who beat his rivals in the race 12 months earlier?
That horse was Un De Sceaux, who shot in this race back in 2017, but then dropped his colors the following year from a rapidly improving Gigginstown owner runner in Balko Des Flos.
The similarities are incredible because Allaho, many people’s idea of the banker of the week, comes here with a very similar profile.
Like Un Des Sceaux, he will be on the back of two effort victories so far this campaign formation and will be a tough chance-on favorites.
I’ll take the chance to repeat the story and will improve with another horse in those Balcony Des Flos colors in the fast CONFLATED.
The eight-year-old bolted in a hot handicap over this trip to Navan in December and the handicap reaction to this performance forced compounds to take their poor chance and throw him in at level one level.
This run came at the Irish Gold Cup in Leopardstown last month, where he received a peach from a ride by Davy Russell to cause a great deal of excitement with a whole host of stars, including last season’s Gold Cup winner Minella Indo following.
The return trip should not be a nuisance with Allaho, possibly once again a blowing pace.
This helps the Conflated to settle down and he should consider the favorite much later.
Of course, an on-song Allaho will take a lot of pegging back, but I’m ready to take a chance on Conflated to cause another mini shock on 13/2 with William Hill.
The opening of Turners Novices’ Chase (1.30pm) attracted only the four runners, which is the smallest field I can ever remember for a Cheltenham Festival course.
That said, the two majors have both stood their ground and what promises to be the match of the whole meeting.
Bob Olinger the narrow favorite at a best-price even with Fitzdares, while if you hunt around you can find some 5/4 over Galopin Des Champs.
Both horses are really talented, and the truth is we do not really need a bet to improve what promises to be a cracker.
My feeling is that Bob Olinger is actually a favorite on the back of what he has achieved over hurdles more than what he has done over the biggest obstacles so far.
Many still have the image of him everywhere Bravemansgame in last season’s Ballymore Hurdles, but things were harder work on feathers.
I fully understand the argument that he just had more speed than his market competitor because he reached well over two miles, but yesterday’s rain may have swung things back towards Galopin Des Champs.
From the pair, I just had the overwhelming feeling that Willie Mullins’ runner was just the more natural of the pair and if I were forced, I would be in his camp.
POINTER
Conflated e / w 14.50 Cheltenham
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