The Washington State Cougars will play SMU in the second round of the NIT after the Mustangs sent the Nicholls State Colonels home 68-58 Wednesday night.
The game airs at 12pm PT on Sunday and will only be broadcast on ESPN +, ESPN’s subscription-based streaming platform. You can sign up here if you do not have a subscription yet. (Because I have kids and I like to watch European football, I already have the bundle.)
The 1-Seed Mustangs – also the top overall seed in the NIT bracket – ran out on an early lead against the Colonels, then regained most of that lead, and then pulled away at the last minute for a double-digit final margin. they post. Even though the winning probability never fell below 89% (according to kenpom.com), it proves the inconvenience that SMU experienced in the second half, especially when Nicholls was pulled in two with three minutes left. SMU finished on a 10-2 run.
SMU provides an interesting matchup for WSU in that the Mustangs are exceptionally small, ranking 305th and kenpom.com the effective height metric; their biggest starting tackle is 6-foot-5/215-pound Marcus Weathers, and their two legit big performances not much, combined for just 24 minutes against Nicholls. Weathers certainly play much larger than its measured size, but the fact remains that the Cougars have a great height advantage in the interior.
This height disadvantage has very real consequences for the Mustangs: 12.5% of their 2-point attempts this season have been blocked, 13. Worst in the entire Division 1. This, of course, is good news for WSU, which blocks 12, 9 percent of opponents 2s – 32nd best – and comes from a 10-block / 27% performance against Santa Clara.
However, this does not mean that the Mustangs may not be effective at insult. They finished 4th in the AAC in points per possession in the conference game, largely thanks to Kendric Davis, who is a powerhouse. The 6-foot point guard is comfortable both inside and out and pulls a ton of fouls. His true shooting percentage, which combines 3s, 2s, and free throws ranks 158th nationally – pretty remarkable considering that Metric generally favors big men who take high percentage 2s.
The lack of height also means that the Mustangs have a really hard time clearing the boards – they rank 248th in defensive rebounding percentage. Again, conversely, the Cougars are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, ranking 40th in offensive rebounding percentage. So, while SMU does an excellent job of preventing opponents from getting shot (10th in opponent effective field goal percentage), they will have a really hard time keeping the Cougars from the second chance.
The Cougars will absolutely have their hands full, but it’s also a whole contest. Kenpom.com predicts the Mustangs will win about 60% of the time with a 72-69 margin. While 60% might seem like a lot, statistically, that’s little more than a coin flip. It should be fun!
Here’s the full bracket as it stands now – Tony Bennett’s revenge game is still on the table!
LINKS
Washington State to meet SMU in Dallas in second round NIT Matchup | Washington State University | khq.com
Washington State will travel to Southern Methodist University this weekend for a second-round NIT game, according to some Dallas Region media reports.
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Under Washington law, betting is prohibited on in-state college teams.
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