Putin’s dwindling options and isolation fuel fears about his next moves

Washington – Western officials warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin could resort to increasingly brutal and extreme tactics Ukraine as Russian forces struggle to achieve their military goals and questions arise over Putin’s control over power.

A senior US defense official told reporters on Wednesday that Russian forces advancing on Kyiv “appear to be stalled” and that they generally suffer from “logistical and support problems as well as integration problems”.

“The Russians will learn from these mistakes and try to overcome them,” the official said.

President Biden said on Wednesday that the Russian leader was “isolated from the world more than ever”, as a series of sanctions it destabilizes the Russian economy and the invasion of Moscow faces almost global condemnation.

Kremlin observers have noted that Putin, a former intelligence officer previously known for his moderation, has been unusually agitated, handing out serpentine guides and publicly attacking his aides.

“He was always cold, calculating and ruthless. You know, a KGB man,” said Mike Vickers, a former Undersecretary of Intelligence, special operations officer and CIA officer who had a key role in arming the Afghan insurgency during the Soviet-Afghan war of the 1980s. “But now he’s more emotional, more erratic, more rambling, I think he’s more reckless, maybe to increase self-isolation and self-confidence.”

“This seems like a major strategic mistake that potential losses outweigh gains,” Vickers added during a recent episodes CBS News’ “Intelligence Matters.”“ podcast. “And so I think in that sense, he’s really a different man now and therefore potentially more dangerous.”

Current and former US intelligence officials say that agencies have assessed Putin as an experienced, calculating and rational actor with a different worldview, but in recent years, and especially during the pandemic. of COVID-19, has become more isolated and unpredictable. , relying on a dwindling circle of advisers and helpers.

Sources who spoke to CBS News were not aware of any credible information that Putin, apart from being almost 70 years old, is suffering physically or suffering from neurological problems that would leave him disconnected from reality.

U.S. policymakers are calling for new insights into their thinking at the CIA and other agencies, where leading analysts are tasked full-time with outlining world leaders like Putin and other decision-makers in foreign governments. Its functions involve combining and analyzing different types of intelligence gathered (information obtained from human sources, intercepted communications, and other means) to determine the motivations of leaders and their potential vulnerabilities.

Some Western officials have argued that Putin, though less moderate, has not hidden his agenda, motivations or frustrations for decades.

“I think there was a logical and methodical plan that goes back a long way, at least until 2007, when it informed the world, and certainly Europe, that Moscow would not accept the new NATO expansion.” said Fiona Hill, a Recently told Politico Magazine a Russian expert and former National Security Council official.

Former Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, now a member of the European Parliament, compared the current situation to the years leading up to World War II.

“In the 1930’s … the leader of a great nation-state told us publicly that he had a plan of conquest. And our mistake was to think, ‘This is too crazy; he can’t take it seriously. “They both took it seriously,” Sikorski told CBS News in a recent interview.

“[Putin] he wants to undo the collapse of the Soviet Union, and he has made it clear, “he added.

The French news agency AFP quoted an anonymous official from French President Emmanuel Macron’s office as saying that Putin is now “more rigid and isolated” than in the past.

“Putin does that [Macron] that he met in the Kremlin was not the same as he had seen in December 2019, “the official said, referring to Macron’s. February meeting with Putin in the Kremlin.

Concerns that Russia may soon use banned weapons such as cluster munitions or “vacuum” thermobaric bombs have increased as unverified videos circulate on social media about its positioning on Ukrainian soil.

The International Criminal Court said on Wednesday it would open an investigation possible war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in Ukraine, after 38 nations signed a referral for an expedited investigation.

Speaking in Vienna, Michael Carpenter, the US ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, said in a speech on Thursday that the United States had credible information that the Russians were keeping lists of Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps after a military occupation.

“Given what we have seen in past Russian operations, we hope that the Russian Federation will try to force the population to cooperate through intimidation, abuse and repression, including murder, kidnapping, detention and physical abuse,” he said. to say.

Margaret Brennan and Eleanor Watson contributed to this report.