Vun Inga Kristina Trauthig, King’s College London and Amine Ghoulidi, King’s College London
The effects of the Russian war against Ukraine are being felt all over the world. The effects are likely to be particularly acute for countries in North Africa. The region is a major exporter of raw materials and raw materials and has complex, sometimes controversial relations with Europe, the USA and Russia.
The US has asked North African and Middle Eastern countries to increase their gas production to supply Europe. [US working with Europe to identify additional non-Russian gas supplies: White House]
Among the Maghreb countries that could come to the fore are Algeria and Libya, with Algeria having the highest potential. Algeria is one of the largest gas producers in the world and is one of the top five LNG exporters in Europe. It could technically increase its gas supply to Europe through various pipelines through Italy and Spain.
However, Algeria’s opaque internal political decision, highly controversial relationship with neighboring Morocco, and decades of strategic alignment with Russia, stand in the way.
Libya is Africa’s largest oil reserve holder. It also has significant gas capacity. But the country has been devastated by a bitterly armed conflict, alarmed by the presence of Russian mercenaries on its territory. This has undermined its energy export potential in Europe.
Algeria has a close relationship with Russia and the United States based primarily on strategic military synergies. In Libya, Russia has put its weight behind the main spoiler – General Khalifa Haftar. For its part, the US has mainly focused on cooperation with the UN and with Libya, which is interested in organizing contested election processes.
Countries like Algeria are unlikely to step up to replace Russia’s gas supply without an implicit angle from Russia. European politicians had hoped that Algeria and Libya would ease European dependence on Russia. However, North African countries act on the basis of their own calculations. This includes seeking concessions from Europe and the US on their priorities and managing their relationship with Russia.
This reduces the hopes of European politicians who expect Algeria and Libya to relieve economic difficulties.
Algeria treads a strip
Algeria, a major gas exporter to the EU, is treading a tightrope. It is without a doubt the country with the most widespread relations with Russia in the region. This requires reconciling two conflicting principles. Living by its long-standing position on the brightness of international borders while signaling its continuous unwavering support for its strategic military and diplomatic, Russia.
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Algeria is Russia’s third largest arms importer. In the run-up to the Ukrainian invasion, Algeria stopped to signal any antagonism against its history.
However, as the EU seeks new, sustainable alternatives for the sanctioned Russian energy exporters, Algeria is strategically positioned to fill the gap. It could technically meet European gas requirements.
Algeria currently exports approximately 22 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually via the TransMed pipeline to Italy. It could increase this by almost half the current rate. The Maghreb Europe Gas Pipeline (MEG), which connects Algeria’s largest gas field with Spain through Morocco, was closed in October 2021 when Algeria severed relations with Morocco. But Algeria seems to be retreating to meet demands to increase its gas exports to Europe. Algeria does not want to separate Russia. Nevertheless, it will want to take advantage of skyrocketing energy prices. It could also try to secure EU-US concessions on a number of issues that the country considers strategic, such as Western Sahara.
The dispute over the territory of Western Sahara has strained relations between Morocco and Algeria since the 1970s. Morocco took control of most of the territory in 1976. Algeria has provided military, diplomatic and financial support to the Polisario Front since then. The Front is an armed insurgent group working for the independence of the territory. Decades and a few UN mediation attempts later, the conflict remains intractable.
In 2020, the US administration recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the territory as part of the Tripartite Normalization Agreement known as the Abraham Accords. Algeria was confronted with deep political strife and took some time to respond to US recognition and Morocco’s perceived assertive stance.
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It was not until 2021, when President Abdelmajid Tebboune consolidated his power base, that Algeria took the heat on Morocco. Among his retaliatory measures was the cancellation of his long-standing treaty with Morocco over the transfer of gas to Spain through the MEG pipeline.
Algeria has expressed strong frustration over the European Commission’s Morocco-friendly positions on Western Sahara. Algeria could well try to link the increase in gas capacity with a drain on EU / US support for Morocco in Western Sahara. And it might have just found an ally for it: Spain.
The Iberian Kingdom is highly dependent on Algerian natural gas exports and sees a potential outbreak in North Africa as a direct threat to its national and economic security. With Algeria’s sustained political and economic boycott of Morocco, coupled with its unique military coup, the region is closer to war than it has ever been since the 1960s.
Morocco, designated by the United States as a major non-NATO ally, has traditionally aligned itself with the United States and the European Union on important military and diplomatic issues. At the same time, it tried to maintain “positive neutrality” with Russia.
Algeria, for its part, is increasingly looking for clear signals from Russia, which is on the Western Sahara issue. It was in this context that Russia, in an extraordinary movement, in October 2021 of the UN Security Council included a vote on Western Sahara. This was before President Putin’s Special Representative for the Middle East, Mikhail Bogdanov, welcomes a high-level Polisario delegation to Moscow.
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Russia’s actions were symbolically significant. But it did not go as far as to completely circumvent the desired Algerian position by vetoing the resolution, or, more radically, recognizing Western Sahara as independent.
It was against this background that Algeria abstained in the March 3 resolution of the UN General Assembly on Russia. For its part, Morocco declares a no-show despite its quiet rejection of the Russian attack.
Libya de Fall
Libya’s oil minister has already announced that “Libya does not have enough reserves to make a difference.”
Since last month, Libya has fallen into another political crisis, characterized by two competing governments. This jeopardizes the political progress that the country achieved in early 2021, when the Government of National Unity was established as the first national government to unite all parts of Libya since 2013.
The renewed power struggle has had a negative impact on Libya’s production of natural resources: Libya’s oil production has fallen below 1 million barrels per day and the state-controlled National Oil Corporation has stopped deliveries from the ports of Zawiya and Mellitah after armed actors Sharara closed once again. , Land the largest field.
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In the current power struggle, Libyan politicians are dependent on local support, but also international supporters. High-ranking officials are vocal in their condemnation of the Russian attack. Nevertheless, Libya’s alliances are volatile. There are still Russian mercenaries in the country. In addition, Russia has proven itself much more flexible about the unpopular goal of many Libyan elites to hold early elections. This is something that the UN, the USA and the European countries are pushing for.
Shake up a Horizon
Maghreb countries, despite their capacities, are unlikely to build up to replace Russia’s gas supply without implicit distress from Russia. This could provide space for complex new regional alignments and posturing.
However, the current Ukraine crisis and the US and EU attempts to “separate” Russia from its main regional allies (in this case Algeria), coupled with what Algeria could offer the EU in terms of energy, could potentially shaking the balance. and the great power relations with the Morocco and Algeria Dyad.
Inga Kristina Trauthig, PhD Candidate at King’s College, King’s College London and Amine Ghoulidi, PhD candidate at King’s College London, King’s College London
This article will be republished under discussion under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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