How to watch
- When: Thursday at 4:15 p.m.
- Wanted: Moda Center at Rose Quarter – Portland, Oregon
- TV: TNT
- Following: CBS Sports App
Go ahead, take your breath away; it was a whole year for college basketball. Whether it was under-the-radar stars who led their programs to new found successes, to seemingly unmanageable blossoms falling into the hands of unexpected underdogs, the five-month marathon was one to remember. Upsets brought new storylines and folds into history to the end, as over half of the AP’s top-10 teams lost in surprising fashion to conclude what was a historically regular season.
And as expected, the conference championship week was no different, as the madness had already begun before March even arrived. For the first time in a while, a handful of teams will enter the tournament with a legitimate shot to win everything, as this could be the wildest six rounds in the history of the tournament.
Even as an overall number 1 seed, the opponent will not be a stranger to Gonzaga in a charged western region. Assuming the deal is handled against Georgia State, Saturday’s potential matches against either Boise State or Memphis pose interesting obstacles from a matchup perspective.
Beyond that, one of either Texas Tech, Alabama or Duke, all familiar opponents in two of the GU’s three losses this season, will most likely stand in the way of another Final Four appearance if those teams advance far enough for a potential rematch.
So how do Mark Few and his Bulldogs survive the madness and reach the top of the mountain? Because if the tournament proves something, it’s not always enough to be the favorite.
When in doubt, turn to the veterans
Lack of experience in the tournament was kryptonite for even the most talented teams (see 2018-19 Duke and 2014-15 Kentucky), especially against older teams in the later rounds. There are no counting statistics that can measure poise in high pressure situations, which is one reason why players are not won on paper but in court. The ability might outweigh the regular season, but that all changes in the postseason.
While this may not be the toughest team Mark Few has had, there are not many other programs that have such a combination of talent and leadership. Four Zags fit this bill, but no one will be more confident than Andrew Nembhard and Drew Timme.
As the initiator of the nation’s best offense, Nembhard was quietly one of the best point guards in college basketball this season. His score may not jump from the sidelines, but as a selfless and shrewd decision-maker, his basketball IQ separates him from the rest of the pack. Basketball care was hardly an issue this season, as the seniors 3.2 assistant-to-turnover ratio only included UCLA’s Tyger Campbell and Richmond’s Jacob Gilyard among the guards who are in the tournament.
The moment was also not too big for Nembhard, evident in the WCC Championship game, where he threw the Gaels away with clutch plays on both sides of the floor. In a close contest, his steady hand is a luxury for the Zags.
But when it’s time to get a bucket, Timme is the go-to guy. Now in its third NCAA tournament, the All-American’s back-to-the-sketch style of play promises to be good when the pace slows down and the offense stops. Last year’s postseason was proof that he can be dominant at any moment during a ball game, and with the right distance, the colors are all for him.
During the Gonzaga tournament last season, Timme averaged 20.3 points per game on almost 65% shots from the ground.
None of this is a discredit for Chet Holmgren, Hunter Sallis or Nolan Hickman in their development this season, but it’s an immense value to have veterans who can make the ship right and set the tone when things go wrong.
Prepare for a different style of play
The Zags ran their opponents all season to become the nation’s top scorer, as any missed shot could feel like a turnover due to the blue pace. Fastbreaks and simple baskets were the bread and butter of the offense, as 32.4% of their field goal attempts and transition this season after hoop math, third most in the country. Some teams from the WCC were able to counterattack, but that will not be the case against some hidden defenses in the tournament.
If you look at the West Region alone, there are a handful of potential enemies that could present challenges to Gonzaga’s run-and-gun scheme. Teams like Texas, Boise State and UConn rely on disciplined defense that rarely passes fast scores, as all three are top-25 to allow the fewest passing attempts by the opposition. Even New Mexico State and Georgia State, who both held their opponents down to under 50% effective shooting in the transition attempt, have been good all season to turn against the insults.
Offensively, there are not many teams in the way of the Zags who play with a similar up-tempo beat. Only the Crimson Tide ranks in the KenPom Top-25 custom tempo metrics, while Arkansas (28)th) and Memphis (34th) have shown tendencies to slow down, but not at the same rate. Others, however, such as Texas and Vermont, are more methodical and patient in their attacks.
Familiarity with some of these programs should be good for the zags that the Red Raiders and Longhorns solved earlier this season, but teams that drain the shot clock and move the ball well pose an interesting challenge. Gaels are the prime example of how one fights Gonzaga with her physical but disciplined defense and balanced approach to offense. It would not be surprising to see more talented tournament enemies copying this blueprint.
Play Zags basketball
This may seem obvious, but it’s true, nonetheless. There’s a reason why the Bulldogs are again the No. 1 overall seed, and it’s been seen all year through their collective focus and connectivity that is rarely seen in college basketball. Strategy and talent aside, the bond that these players have forged together is truly the pillar of their success this season and will be just as vital in their attempt to bring home a national title.
At court, that translates into crisp offensive sentences, ball movement and communication about defense, all aspects that defined Gonzaga’s basketball brand. There are not many programs in the country that even reach the level of efficiency that Mark Few’s squad has played this season. At best, it’s an unstoppable juggernaut that stops braking until the last buzzer.
As mentioned earlier, teams try to throw a key or folds to cause disruption, but there is only one person who can really stop the Zags: themselves.
Credit to Saint Mary’s, Alabama and Duke of course, but all three losses were highlighted by outside character tendencies that were not all attributed to stellar game planning by the opposition. Sometimes it was cooked to make shots and missed, but in general, stagnant insult, drawn back to isolation players, was the culprit behind these losses.
Now, with a list that has two All-Americans in one contender for the Best Point Guard Award, the benefit of one-on-one matchups is definitely viable, but only for so long. Good teams will adjust and counter post-up games for Timme or isolation sets for Nembhard to keep the Zags one-dimensional and limit their scoring options. It can not be a game of “your turn, my turn” on offense, or it will be a bitter end to a stellar season.
The path to the title, however, is still clear; build what has worked all season and be ready to adapt along the way. When executed, Gonzaga moves out of New Orleans with new hardware.
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