The Toronto Maple Leafs have shown they can win without Auston Matthews and rookie goalie Erik Kallgren in a 4-0 win over Dallas on Tuesday, but today’s game against the Carolina Hurricanes will pose a much bigger challenge.
Can the Leafs still steal two points from Freddy Anderson and the Canes despite home underdogs? With more band on Kallgren, did the Hurricanes have a better advantage than the Stars on Tuesday? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs.
Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs Chances
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This game opened as a pick ’em but moved slightly to Carolina at -115 on the moneyline with a total of 6.0 on the over. These two teams met at the end of January with the Leafs winning 4-3 in overtime as -135 home favorites with a final total of 6.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track all future line moves until the puck drops and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before you bet to make sure you get the best number.
Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs Forecasts
Forecasts made on 3/17/2022 at 10:17 am ET.
Click on any forecast to jump to the full analysis.
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Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs Game Info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Thursday, March 17, 2022
• Puck drop: 19:00 ET
• TV: Sportsnet
Hurricanes vs Maple Leafs Betting Preview
Key injuries
Hurricanes: Tony DeAngelo D (Fro), Brendan Smith D (Fro).
Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews F (Out), Jake Muzzin D (Out), Jack Campbell G (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs head-to-head record since 2017-18
Hurricanes: 5-5 SU, 40 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 5-5 SU, 39 goals for.
Betting to know trend
Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Toronto. Find more NHL betting trends for Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs.
Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs Picks and Forecasts
Our page and total predictions are based on our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite choice in all markets.
Moneyline Analysis
The Maple Leafs surprised the hockey world with a dominant 4-0 victory over the Dallas Stars on Tuesday as -135 home favorites. They played great on both sides and won the victory without the league’s leading scorer and a rookie goalkeeper.
Erik Kallgren made 35 saves for the shootout in his NHL starting debut, while the top line of Michael Bunting-John Tavares-Mitchell Marner played solidly without Auston Matthews.
Toronto won the game and dominated the Xgoal metrics, but can finally put together some great outings against a tough matchup in the Hurricanes tonight.
Carolina has the best winning percentage in the Eastern Conference and has been 19-6-4 since January 1. It recently saw its four-game winning streak in a 4-2 loss to the Penguins, in which it beat Pittsburgh 43 to 20. came out.
The Canes are one of the best shot-suppressing teams in hockey and goalkeeper Frederik Andersen made 28 saves on 29 shots in his first game back from a minor injury against the Flyers on Saturday, so his health is not in question. Carolina’s not to confront Matthews is huge because the Leafs’ ‘center man’ had two goals in the last meeting between these teams.
Andersen placed second in the league in wins with 30 and has the second-best SV% behind future Vezina winner Igor Shesterkin. Andersen played well in his only start against his former team, making 28 saves in an OT loss and having a .929 SV% over his last 19 starts.
He was arguably one of the most consistent goalkeepers this season and is the biggest difference in this matchup.
Price is very important in this handicap as well. Dallas closed on Tuesday as +120 underdogs and we think the hurricanes should be here a little longer on the ML here and we started to see that the market agreed with us.
The biggest need here for the Leafs is another impressive start from Kellgren. He is a former seventh-round pick and carried a 3.02 GAA over 26 AHL players before making his first NHL start. In that game, the Stars threw a ton of pucks at him, but they finished below 3.00 xGoals and did not create a ton of quality scoring chances.
The Leafs have moved Russian Beer, Ilya Lyubushkin, into a pairing with Morgan Rielly, which is the right move for the defense but this is still a Toronto blue line that is not physically (or big) in the bottom four and against a Carolina stands. Insults that can play the skill game as well as the hard stuff.
The Canes have killed 12 of their last 13 penalties and played the best penalty in the league. They may not be too busy Thursday as the Leafs pull the second-least penalties in the league and have just six chances over their last three games.
Hitting hurricanes at 5-on-5 is no easy task as they sit in the top 5 in goal percentage, Corsi percentage, and expected goal difference.
Getting the Canes at -115 against a team with its number 4 goalkeeper and missing its top candidate is a great prize. If Dallas had won this game on Tuesday, this line might have looked different.
Predict: Hurricanes Moneyline (-115)
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Over / Under Analysis
The Hurricanes have a bit more band on Kellgren and will probably not shoot any lower threat shots at him than the Stars did. Carolina is known as one of the best offensive teams in hockey, but is not as tight on the road as at home.
That averages a total of 5.48 goals per game at home compared to 5.96 total goals per game on the road. This is an insult that sits in the top-10 and has shot shots on net and goals per game since the 2022 calendar, while Toronto stands with a familiar face to Andersen.
Andersen has played five seasons with the Maple Leafs and even if he does not have to face Matthews, he will see a team that knows his tendencies and has beaten him four times in the last meeting. Mitch Marner ended the match with two goals and an assist.
The Hurricanes ’offense should have been able to do more damage than the Stars versus a rookie netminder did, and the Bud also struggled with consistency and rarely took good performances in back-to-back games.
As we saw with Tuesday’s total, this 6.0 could very well close to 6.5. The Dallas game ended with almost 9.00 expected goals as Bud’s offense did not fight without their top scorer.
The Hurricanes have the best penalty in the league but we can not sell the leafs here either, as they have the No. 1 power play and found the back of the net against the Stars.
Toronto knows Andersen, and Kellgren could fall back to earth after posting a shutout in his first NHL start. Both teams scored three goals in the previous meeting and we were able to see the same thing again this evening. With the Leafs problems on the blue line and inexperience on the net, this total should be 6.5.
Predict: Over 6 (-125)
Best bet
As much as we love the Canes in this one, we love the value even more, and scoring John Tavares at +220 is a real treat. He closed at +135 in his last game and shot against the Stars through a promotion to the top line – a top line that scored four goals against Caolina in the last meeting.
The Michael Bunting-John Tavares-William Nylander line finished the game with an 89% xgoal percentage on Tuesday and the line had 14 shot attempts compared to five against and had the majority of the time in the offensive zone.
The Mitch Marner effect is real and Tavares is one of the best front-net presence guys in the league and has an opportunity that is not reflected in his +220 AGS award.
Pick: Tavares at any moment Target (+220)
NHL parlays
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