(CNN)US and NATO officials believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin has not withdrawn his original demands in talks with Ukraine, and there is widespread skepticism in Western capitals about how credible Moscow’s commitment really is — even given the status of those talks remains difficult to decipher, according to multiple sources briefed on the situation.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently indicated that he is ready to consider some concessions to Russia to help end the violence, including a policy of neutrality – albeit a policy backed by robust security guarantees, raising further questions about the current status of the talks and on specific issues raises elements of a peace agreement that may be considered.
“I am ready for negotiations with (Putin). I’ve been ready for the past two years. And I don’t think we can end this war without negotiations,” Zelensky said in an exclusive interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on Sunday. But he warned that any failure to negotiate could lead to “a third world war.”
Ukrainian and Russian negotiators have met four times since the Russian invasion began.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov commented on the possibility of Ukraine agreeing to neutral status during a media event in Moscow on Saturday.
“After our operation in Ukraine ends, and I hope that it will end with the signing of a comprehensive agreement on the issues I mentioned – security issues, Ukraine’s neutral status with the guarantees of its security as (Putin), a few months ago when I remember he said at a press conference on our initiative of not expanding NATO, we understand that every country needs guarantees for its security,” Lavrov said.
But details on the negotiations remain sparse as many NATO countries, including the US, stay out of the secret talks, citing a European defense official as making the negotiations “a bit grim at the moment”.
The Biden administration still sees no signs that Putin is willing or ready to de-escalate the conflict — making it difficult for US officials to be optimistic about the current state of negotiations, a source familiar with the situation said.
But at the same time, this source also said that the US does not pressure Ukraine to accept or reject certain concessions and is not involved in the negotiation process.
CNN reached out to the US National Security Council for comment, but received no response.
Russian demands
Some of the conditions that Ukraine is willing to accommodate seem more workable than others, but at the end of the day NATO allies remain skeptical of Russia’s involvement.
“It’s very tight and nobody really knows what’s going on,” said the European defense official. “Ukraine’s positions have not changed – ceasefire, troop withdrawal and security guarantees.”
“Anyone who says they know anything about the state of the talks, (they) really don’t know,” the official added.
According to Turkish Presidential Spokesman İbrahim Kalin, in a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday, Putin laid out several points to reach a ceasefire with Ukraine.
“The first is Ukraine’s neutrality,” Kalin said in an interview with Turkey’s Hürriyet newspaper published on Saturday, adding that this would mean Ukraine agreeing not to become a member of NATO. “Second, disarmament and mutual security guarantees within the framework of the Austrian model. Third, the process that the Russian side calls ‘denazification’. Fourth, removing obstacles to the widespread use of the Russian language in Ukraine. It is understood that some progress has been made on the first four articles of the ongoing negotiations. It is too early to say that there is a full agreement or that an agreement is about to be signed.”
Kalin said Putin has additional demands that are “the most difficult issues” – recognition of the annexation of Crimea and the two so-called republics in Donbass. Kalin said these last two items are “unacceptable demands on Ukraine and the international community.”
“If a point is reached in the first four articles and an agreement is reached, then there can be a senior-level discussion on the fifth and sixth articles,” Kalin said in the interview, adding that if the negotiations take place, “it may be possible to reach an agreement and end the war.”
US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield on Sunday declined to set terms for what the US would or would not accept if Ukraine and Russia reached an agreement to end the fighting.
“Ukrainians have to decide for themselves what is too much for them. It is not our decision and we support their efforts. So I can’t predict what they will come up with in their negotiations with the Russians.” She told CNN’s Jake Tapper on State of the Union.
When asked again by Tapper whether the US would recognize Crimea or Donbass as part of Russia if that were part of the deal, Thomas-Greenfield again declined to answer.
“I can’t say that at the moment. We certainly did not recognize the Donbass regions that have just been declared independent. But I cannot judge how we will react to a negotiated settlement that puts the Ukrainians with the Russians to save the lives of their own people.”
The lack of clarity about the status of the negotiations raises additional questions about what Ukraine is willing to agree to and how Russia’s demands would be implemented if they eventually reach some sort of agreement.
Zelenksky said on Saturday there were “compromises” that his country could not make in negotiations with Putin.
“All the compromises regarding our territorial integrity and our sovereignty and the Ukrainian people spoke about it, they didn’t greet Russian soldiers with a bouquet of flowers, they greeted them with bravery, they greeted them with weapons in their hands,” he said CNN’s Zakaria when asked about the Russian demands.
“You can’t just force a president of another country to recognize anything,” he added.
Many details of Russia’s demands, whether Ukraine will accept them and how Ukraine will implement them in the first place, are still unclear, a senior NATO official said. That includes what it would mean for Ukraine to adopt “neutral” status vis-à-vis the West — a possibility that a congressional source told CNN has heartburned US officials.
“Does that mean they’re renouncing NATO? Does that mean they’re renouncing the (European Union)? Can’t they get any other outside help?” said the NATO official. “My feeling is that it will be a very complex negotiation.”
policy of neutrality
A European diplomat told CNN last week that if Ukraine pursued a policy of neutrality and also demilitarized it would effectively be a surrender – calling such a move “Moscow-style neutrality.”
The Kremlin has floated the idea that Kyiv could adopt a Swedish or Austrian policy of neutrality. However, a Swedish diplomat dismissed the idea of Swedish neutrality, saying that the idea that their country was neutral was not true and attempts to portray it as such are consistent with longstanding Russian efforts to misrepresent Sweden’s national security policy.
“Whenever the term ‘Austrian neutrality’ is mentioned, it must be remembered that it is a model of armed neutrality. This form of neutrality does not mean that a state lays down its arms and hopes that nobody will attack it. Neutrality is where a country is – at least in theory – armed and ready to defend itself against all foreign warring factions,” said Martin Weiss, Austria’s ambassador to Austria the USA.
The NATO official added that it is unclear what kind of deal Russia and Ukraine might come to over the territory that Russia has taken control of since the February 24 invasion, belied by the fact that between the parties “some fairly distinct differences remain”.
“I think we just have to keep in mind that the Russians will almost certainly try to continue supplies and will probably continue to fight until things are settled,” the official said. “Whatever the solution, if there is a diplomatic solution and an agreement, it must be clear and binding. And it must be monitorable. … People will make sure that the Russians finally end the war. t a lingering threat that stays.”
While the source familiar with the Biden administration’s view of the talks told CNN that some of the conditions Ukraine is willing to consider seem more practicable than others, the source also hinted that the U.S Russian intentions will remain suspicious until Putin shows some signs that he is ready to de-escalate.
CNN’s Kylie Atwood, Jennifer Hansler, and Jasmine Wright contributed to this report
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