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By Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Magic Man: Jalen Suggs missed his fourth straight game with an ankle injury and while Cole Anthony ($ 6,300 on DraftKings) still hasn’t really benefited from the rookie’s injury, there are a few trends to like. In the last three games Orlando’s pace has been up 2.6% from the previous month and the usage per minute for Anthony has been attractive (per 36 minutes: 13.8 shots, 6.3 free kicks and 8.8 assists). The Warriors allow 35% of the points over the 3, one of the 10 highest rates in the NBA, so if you’re looking for a cheaper DFS game, put Anthony in a spot where the field might have to make the most of it. Lifting makes sense.
Given Gallo: The Hawks will likely not have John Collins in the lineup for the rest of the regular season due to injury. Bogdan Bogdanovic is listed as doubtful to compete in tonight’s matchup with the Knicks at Madison Square Garden. With Collins out and Bogdanovic sick, Danilo Gallinari (95% available) is in this reunion with his former team with some real momentum; he played 71 minutes and scored 38 total points for his last two games.
Poole Party: Jordan Poole (18% available) will issue additional playmaking and scoring duties with Stephen Curry. The third-year guard responded by scoring 28.5 points in the last two games since Curry’s injury. With the Magic missing Suggs, possibly their point-of-attack defenders, Poole is positioned to excel against an Orlando team that allowed nearly 50 DraftKings points per game to show guards.
High on Hyland: Prior to a recent blowout loss to Boston, Denver Bones Hyland (91% available) averaged 30.1 minutes, 18.3 points, 4.7 assists and three 3-pointers over his last three games. He will likely flirt once again with 30 minutes to head home tonight against a Clippers team under a few key wing defenders. Hyland is a solid streaming and DFS target during a light four-game slate.
Game of the night
Line: Nuggets (-6.5)
Moneyline: Nuggets (-260), Clippers (+210)
Whole: 223.0 points
BPI projected Total: 212 points
BPI Profit%: Nuggets (78.7%)
Key players excluded: keng
Notable: The Unders are 9-3 in the last 12 games of Denver and they ride on a four-game winless streak ATS
Fantasy Streamer: Aaron Gordon. In the last two games, Gordon has averaged 16.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG and 2.5 APG. Nikola Jokic is the only player with a higher PPG average in this time frame. Gordon is available in 50% of ESPN leagues. In 10 games so far in March, he averages 13.2 PPG, 4.7 RPG and 2.1 APG and 29.3 MPG. –Eric Moody
Best bet: Under 223 points. The notable points to Denver’s recent history with underdogs, but the Clippers and their opponents have also combined to average just 214.4 PPG in the last eight games while falling six times under 223 points. The BPI projection is full 11 points below the 223 point line. – André Snellings
Break off the rest of the slate
Line: Warrior (-8)
Moneyline: Warriors (-360), Magic (+285)
Whole: 216.5 points
BPI projected Total: 218 points
BPI Profit%: Warriors (61.6%)
Key players excluded: Stephen Curry
Doubtful: Moses Moody (Shoulder)
Notable: We’ve seen the underdog in five of the last six Warrior games, a run that looked straight ahead over tickets from nine out of 10 Golden State games.
Fantasy Streamer: RJ Hampton. Hampton (99.5% available) had another spot start with Suggs. He averaged 7.3 PPG, 3.0 RPG, and 2.7 APG in the last three games as well as 14 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per 40 minutes.
Line: Hawks (-1.5)
Moneyline: Hawks (-125), Knicks (+105)
Whole: 226 points
BPI Projected Total: 218.5 points
BPI Profit%: Knicks (54.1%)
Key players excluded: Julius Randle, John Collins, Lou Williams, Bogdan Bogdanovic
Notable: The Hawks are just 1-8 ATS over their last nine, with under tickets coming through in six of those contests.
Fantasy Streamer: De’Andre Hunter. Hunter is still available in 83% of ESPN leagues, which I find shocking. In his last four games, he averaged 16.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.3 SPG and 1.0 BPG. Hunter will see heavy use with John Collins out. – Moody
Best bet: RJ Barrett on 26.5 points; Knicks (+1.5). This is a revenge game for the Knicks, if you remember that Trae Young Knicks mocked fans at MSG last postseason. The Knicks would like to keep the Hawks in the 10th seed in the East. New York has won five of its last eight and will play without pressure the rest of the season. They have the 12th best defense, averaging 113 PPG when faced with a poor defense – which Atlanta has (4th worst in the NBA). The Hawks are dealing with injuries as Collins and Lou Williams are out, and Young is up for grabs. With Julius Randle out, RJ Barrett will carry a big load. He has an average of 24 PPG this season, but gets a lot more shooting opportunities with Randle out. This evening, too, Obi Toppin gets solid minutes. – Anita Marks
Line: Bucks (-6)
Moneyline: Bucks (-250), Bulls (+205)
Whole: 231.5 points
BPI projected Total: 231 points
BPI Profit%: Dollar (74.8%)
Key players excluded: Khris Middleton
Notable: Nine of the last 12 Buck games in Milwaukee have gone over the total.
Streamer: Grayson Allen (92.3% available) should be one of the main perimeter goalie options for the Bucks night out with Middleton. In the 11 games this season that Allen has played without Middleton, he averages 17.5 PPG, 4.3 3PG, 3.6 RPG and 1.0 SPG.
Best bet: Zach LaVine over 23.5 points. LaVine has scored 24 or more points in six of its last seven games, with the only exception being a 27-point blowout loss to Phoenix. He’s on the second night of a back-to-back, and for a time he did not play both halves of B2Bs due to his knee problems, but he did play in the Bulls’ last B2B set earlier this month, which he accidentally saw against the Bucks, and LaVine dropped 30 points in 38 minutes.
Analytics Edge
The highest value of BPI
1. Milwaukee Bucks (119.1 points)
2. Golden State Warriors (110.8 points)
3. Denver Nuggets (110.2 points)
BPI lowest projected total
Los Angeles Clippers (101.8 points)
2. Orlando Magic (107.5 points)
Atlanta Hawks (108.7 points)
BPI Top Probability to Win (Straight Up)
1. Denver Nuggets (78.7%)
2. Milwaukee Bucks (74.8%)
Golden State Warriors (61.6%)
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