SUMMARY … The severe threat continues over Tornado Watches 062-063. Damaging gusts can accompany the stronger bow segments, and a tornado can also occur with the more sustainable supercellular structures.
DISCUSSION … A broken QLCS with a history of harmful gusts and tornadoes continues toward central Alabama. The line consists of both arc segments and semi-discrete, transient supercell structures per MRMS mosaic and KBMX radar data. While low-level moisture continues to be observed in front of the line, recent surface observations suggest that QLCS is slowly exceeding eastern advancement of better moisture (i.e., 65+ F surface dew points) and resulting buoyancy (500+ J / kg MLCAPE). . As such, the overall robustness of the severe wind / tornado threat remains in question. Nevertheless, BMX and MXX VWPs have recently shown very large, curved hodographs that describe very strong low-level shears that are capable of supporting harmful gusts and tornadoes. In the balance, in the current low-CAPE / high-shear environment, a significant strong threat remains, and some more harmful gusts / some tornadoes remain possible until early evening.
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About the Author (Author Profile)
Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic designer, musician, husband and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA President. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the United States. He also provides predictions for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.
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