Middle Tennessee vs. UNC Wilmington Chance
Even if it’s not the NIT or the NCAA tournament, the CBI is still thrilled, especially from the perspective of a bettor.
The finals will feature two teams that have surpassed this season. While both wished they were in the Big Dance, a CBI title would be a perfect way to end their campaigns.
So, which team has the value?
The Blue Raiders were a cover machine this season.
At 25-7-1 ATS, MTSU was the best ATS team in the country. It covered 78.1% of the time, with a full 5.2-point average coverage margin.
This team is a buzzsaw.
Central Tennessee was chaotic on defense, but it was similarly chaotic on offense. The Blue Raiders were first in the C-USA in defensive turnover rate, but also ranked 11th in the C-USA in offensive turnover rate.
But the Blue Raiders can attack the rim. They finished one of the top-50 teams nationally in efficiency on the rim, and they finished top-75 in 2-point shooting (52.4%).
The biggest matchup here is MTSU’s 3-point rate against UNCW’s 3-point defense. MTSU scores 3s at the 63rd highest national rate (42.7% 3PA / FGA), while UNCW scores the 33rd lowest 3-point rate nationally (32.7% 3PA / FGA).
Central Tennessee is not ultra-efficient from above the arc, but UNCW is not ultra-efficient for defending the 3-point arc. The Seahawks are top-90 nationally in defense of catch-and-shoot 3-point opportunities, but MTSU trends toward isolation, off-the-dribble 3s, where UNCW is sub-250 in defensive efficiency.
After the CAA collapsed, the Seahawks had to disappointingly accept an offer to the CBI.
But the Hawks have proven their worth. They dominated VMI, beating No. 1 seed Drake and then beat Northern Colorado, 80-64, after finishing as 2.5-point favorites.
It was a solid end to an anticlimactic season, but the Hawks want the CBI title to send them into the offseason.
Nobody likes isolation more than UNCW. The Seahawks run ISO on the 11th.
While the shots usually did not fall for the Hawks (ninth in the CAA and eFG%), they always got a try because they took care of the ball (first in the CAA in offensive turnover).
UNCW also turned its opponents around a lot. UNCW finished second in the CAA in sales margin at +3.35, just behind Hofstra at +4.38.
In addition, the Seahawks were also not good at defending shots. But UNCW is due to end a ton of negative shooting regression on that end. Its 38 3P% allowance was dead last in the CAA, but ShotQuality projects that number should have been closer to 33%.
Middle Tennessee vs UNC Wilmington betting pick
Central Tennessee has covered nearly 80% of the players they have played this season.
I am willing to trust the Blue Raiders once again, especially since they are national top-70 in terms of efficiency in defending isolation opportunities.
The Blue Raiders are undersized in the interior, but their wings can defend the middle range just like anyone in the CBI.
Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee is looking to shoot often 3s off-the-dribble. UNCW was 259th and efficiently defended off-the-dribble 3s this season, so expect MTSU to get away with that.
Finally, MTSU is one of the better free-kick teams in the nation. So if this game goes late on free kicks, I rely on the Blue Raiders to make those shots and cut along the 4.5-point spread.
I support the Blue Raiders down to -5.
Select: Middle Tennessee -4.5 (Play up to -5)
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