LONDON (Bywire News) – Joe Biden has openly called Putin a war criminal and there are few who disagree. His crimes are played every day in High Definition on television. However, even if he could be arrested, a conviction can be difficult. But that does not mean it is impossible.
What is a war crime?
All wars are crimes but for these purposes we must look at how the International Criminal Court in The Hague defines it. They see it as a violation of the post-WW2 Geneva Conventions, which laid down the humanitarian rules that were followed during wartime. Deliberately target civilians or attack legitimate military targets, where civilian casualties count excessively.
The Soviet Union signed the Geneva Convention in 1954. Although Russia withdrew its recognition of one of the Protocols in 2019, it still signed for the rest.
Ukraine and its western allies would say what we have seen so far in the war would be as clear an example of war crimes as you could see. Russia, however, claims that its “special military operation” is aimed at the denationalization of Ukraine – a claim that suffers from a profound lack of evidence but is used as a defense if it ever goes to court.
How could a case be made?
An investigation is under way by the International Criminal Court into war crimes. Russia has not signed for this and does not recognize its legitimacy, but Ukraine has given permission to investigate alleged atrocities, dating back to the invasion of Crimea in 2014.
Russia will no doubt refuse to cooperate and any trial will only proceed once the people have been arrested, but this will not stop the ICC from concluding its investigation and issuing an arrest warrant.
Who could be tried?
Just about everyone could be guilty of a war crime from soldiers to heads of state. This means that Vladimir Putin can be accused of war crimes if there is reasonable cause to believe that he acted illegally or knew that illegal acts took place and refused to act.
To issue an arrest, the ICC needs a reasonable cause to believe that it is a crime. However, they would have to prove their case beyond a reasonable doubt to secure a conviction. That may not be easy. Footage showing hospitals and theaters being bombarded seems compelling, but prosecutors will eventually have to prove the intent. One way to do this would be to show that there were no military targets in the area.
If civilians were to be hit in the meantime, it would be compelling evidence in itself that the civilians were actively targeted or at least that Russian forces were attacking in the knowledge that it would lead to high civilian casualties.
Can it really happen?
In the short term, the prospects for Putin or his high-ranking justice may seem slim. Sitting in the Kremlin for sure behind his unreasonably long table, the Russian dictator might feel very safe, but he would not be the first head of state to be convicted.
Just ask Liberia’s Charles Taylor, who was convicted by an ad hoc UN court, or the 90 people convicted by the separate International Criminal Tribunal for war crimes committed during the Balkan wars. The ICC has overseen 30 cases and convicted five people of crimes against humanity, genocide or war crimes, including the Congolese warlord Thomas Lubanga Dyilo. The court has also issued a number of arrest warrants for individuals who remain at large, including Joseph Kony, leader of the Lord’s Resistance Army militia group in Uganda.
Issuing an arrest warrant would therefore be extremely plausible, even if it is unlikely that he would pay much attention. However, it could increase Russia’s isolation even after the end of this war and affect how and when all sanctions are lifted.
While he remains president, Putin is unlikely to stand trial. However, even the most brutal dictator can see his grip on power incredibly quickly. A failed war, harsh sanctions and a collapsing economy – along with those 10,000 (and growing) dead soldiers who accidentally admitted it – will erode all its power. When the day comes when Putin does not sit down – be it by coup or popular uprising – the thought that he could one day go to court can become very real.
(Written by Tom Cropper, Editor of Klaudia Fior)
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