Democratic Senate candidates see stronger fundraising than GOP — but they’re still being outspent on the airwaves

Democrats in key Senate races have been breaking records with their fundraising, indicating that they will have substantial resources at their disposal in the final weeks of the election season. And yet, last month, Republicans outspent them on the air, thanks in large part to outside groups.

The change in spending has occurred in the campaign. Democrats haven’t noticed that GOP ads are running over them, and they may be having an effect: polls have tightened the last few weeks in various battlefield races.

Advertising spending in the general election for the Senate has now topped $1 billion, with more than half going to four races: Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

When it comes to Senate races, Democrats have been able to outpace or match Republicans on the airwaves in terms of the reach of their ads in most weeks since the general election began, according to a source who follow media buys. That’s partly because candidate campaigns get better advertising rates. In other words, they pay less than outside groups for the same airtime. Even if outside groups outspend them, Democrats have maintained the edge in who sees these ads, at least so far.

In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock raised more than $26 million in the third quarter of the year. Pennsylvania and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman raised $22 million, and Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes raised more than $20 million, while Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan raised $17 million in the same period.

Among Republicans, only Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Herschel Walker in Georgia have released totals so far. Oz contributed just over $17 million, but that figure included a $7 million personal loan; Walker said he raised $12 million.

From April through late June, Democrats upset Republicans in nearly every battleground Senate race, with the exception of Wisconsin; in some cases, they achieved almost twice as much as their opponents. Meanwhile, Republicans outspent Democrats in Senate races last month with more than $178 million compared to Democrats’ $164 million, according to AdImpact.

But most of that Republican money — $133 million last month — came from outside groups, while candidates contributed $33 million. For Democrats, candidates spent more money directly.

Here’s what it meant in some of the biggest races:

In Georgia, Warnock was the biggest TV and cable spender in one of the nation’s most competitive Senate races in July and August with nearly $10 million. But Republicans last month edged out Democrats in the race to support Republican Herschel Walker. Overall, however, Democrats’ ads aired more frequently because of the more favorable rates for the candidates.

A similar pattern has occurred in Pennsylvania. Fetterman was the biggest TV and cable spender in the first two months of the third quarter; Democrats outnumbered Republicans overall. That carried over in September to Republicans with a spending advantage.

Republican ads have been criticizing Fetterman on crime. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s group, the Senate Leadership Fund, dropped nearly $11 million into the race last month on television and cable. It led to a dramatic increase in Republican ads that aired in the state in September. But overall, Democrats held their lead in the number of ads aired in the race.

The shift to greater GOP spending in races after Democrats held the spending advantage was also seen last month in North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio. The number of GOP ads understandably increased, but in all of them, Democrats maintained an edge in the number of ad airings, according to AdImpact.

The situation was slightly different in Wisconsin, where incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson led Barnes, his Democratic opponent, in fundraising for the second term, even though Barnes was in the middle of a crowded Democratic primary. Although Johnson has yet to release his fundraising numbers from July through September, Republicans have been flooding the airwaves and spending millions to support their only Republican incumbent for re-election in a state he won President Joe Biden.

Republicans collectively outspent Democrats in television and cable ads in Wisconsin in September: $18.3 million to $13.9 million, according to AdImpact. Democrats spent more than $1 million more in August and about $3 million more in July, but Democrats breezed through the primary process in those months. More Republican ads than Democrats aired in July and August. That wasn’t the case last month, but it was much closer in numbers than in other states.

Anthony Chergosky, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, said Republican foreign spending has played a “significant role” in the campaign. He said while the group’s outside spending can sometimes “hijack” candidates’ message and focus, Republican ads have “reinforced” Johnson’s message against Barnes about crime and law enforcement.

“You turn on the TV in Wisconsin and every commercial break shows Mandela Barnes being absolutely beaten down by the problems of policing and crime,” he said. “Republican outside groups know exactly what to do to target Mandela Barnes’ weaknesses.”

When it comes to the surge in GOP ads, the McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund was the biggest player in some battleground Senate races last month. A spokesman for the group said it was “furiously litigating the Democrats’ records.”

“As voters learn of Democrats’ staunch support for the agenda that destroys their quality of life, they are desperately seeking candidates who can rein in these out-of-control liberal policies,” said Communications Director Jack Pandol in a statement

One of the few major Senate races where Republicans outspent Democrats last month was in Arizona, where Democrats outspent Republicans by nearly $9 million. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly contributed more than $9 million of the $19.4 million spent by Democrats on television and cable ads.

While the dynamics of ad spending may have shifted in the third quarter toward more Republican spending, Democrats are also getting help from outside groups. While it didn’t spend as much as the Senate Leadership Fund, the Senate Majority PAC dropped roughly $27 million last month, making it the biggest spender for Democratic Senate candidates, according to AdImpact . He was followed by candidates Warnock and Kelly among the top Democratic TV spenders.

The filing deadline for candidates to report their third-quarter fundraising totals to the Federal Election Commission is Oct. 15.

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• United States Senate