The Red Sox, after a long run, made their big splash for the roster over the weekend, bringing in one of the top free agents on the market to fill the gap in their infield. On Sunday, reports surfaced and it was finally confirmed that Boston had signed former Colorado infielder Trevor Story to a six-year deal worth $ 140 million. There is an opt-out after the fourth season that the Red Sox can ignore if they choose to do so by adding a seventh year worth $ 20 million. This is by far the biggest move the Red Sox have made this winter, and the biggest they’re made in a few years, so it’s time to dust off the scattered thought format.
- I want to start with the much-discussed home / street divisions for Story, who set up a .402 wOBA on Coors Field over his career compared to a .321 wOBA on the road. That’s a big difference, and basically just an average hitter on the road. Many people, it seems, tend to view the state lines of the Rockies players on the street as representing their true talent, and thus see history as a league-average hitter played by Coors. That is, frankly, just the wrong way to look at it.
There has been a lot of research to suggest that the hangover effect that Coors leaves for street players is actually greater than the positive effect of playing Coors, especially since Humidor was added in 2002. There are some theories as to why, although no one knows for sure sure, but the one that makes the most sense to me is that breakpoints at home don’t move that much, so it’s an adjustment that moves back and forth between them and then regular movement on the street. I dropped a bunch of links with longer explanations than that at the end of this story, but I wanted to get that out of the way with the first bullet.
- So now that we’ve got the house / street stuff out of the way, it’s worth watching the players who get the Red Sox here, which is a very good one and one that contributes to many different facets of the game. On the plate, he comes from a season by his standards, but one in which he had the lowest average of balls in the game of his career and also dealt with injuries. And, even with all that, he was still a league-average bat. At best, he meets for strength and makes walks, but it’s hard to know how to transfer his typically high BABIPs away from Coors. This is the area where the Rockies home park has the biggest impact.
In the at the helm of a league-average bat, History was also a 3.5-win player of FanGraphs WAR, talking about how valuable he is as a defender in a baserunner. With the glove, yes, he will lose a value that moves the defensive spectrum down, but he stays in the middle on the second base so the value still exists, probably more than anything else, as bad as the rest of the infield defense ass. And as a base runner, the Red Sox are known for making some frustrating mistakes in that respect, so a plus in that department should at least make the team look more enjoyable.
- I mean I fall into the camp that a lot of people do in which this was not my ideal signature and come offseason. In fact, among the top free agents he was probably at the bottom of my list. I still think an outfielder was a bigger need and if only they had signed one, I would have preferred the Sieya Suzuki. But none of that makes this one bad to sign. Even if the outfield was a greater need, it is not as if the second base is in a perfectly established position. This inevitably improves the line-up of the team and its defense, and brings a marquee name that so many of us have been waiting for. There is no deal on criticism, but I have a hard time complaining at this point about a move that makes the team clear.
- One of the more underrated reasons to love this deal, I think, is what it does for the team bank. Prior to this deal, their top infield bench option – and probably their top bench option in general – was someone like Jonathan Araúz, Jeter Downs or Rob Refsnyder. That is not acceptable for a competing team. With Story in second place, Christian Arroyo moves in as the top bench bat that anyone at Infield can write. It is difficult to overestimate the degree to which this will improve this area of the list.
- The Infield defense is now a fascinating one and certainly brings back some memories of the Yankees from the early 2000s when they bought Alex Rodriguez. Derek Jeter was clearly the worst defensive shortstop, but kept his desire at that position, moving Superior Rodriguez to third base. Similarly, Xander Bogaerts is certainly the worst defensive player but remains on the shortstop. This kind of puts the team in a weird place this year where the infield defense is better than it was before signing, but it’s hard to ignore that it could be better. Now, Trevor Story has recently been treated for an elbow injury, so who knows how well his arm can now play on the left side of the infield at all. Plus, I mean, you have to keep your stars happy and if Bogaerts does not want to move, then he should not. But even as a big Bogaerts fan, there is a conflicting feeling between doing everything to keep him long-term, which means keeping him happy now, and opening up the best version of this team that has the story at shortstop.
Photo by Michael Starghill / MLB Photos by Getty Images
- Speaking of the long-term effects of this, this is probably the aspect I’m most curious about and that might change my thinking about this deal the most. Bogaerts, as everyone reading this probably knows, has the ability to opt out of his contract after the season. He will always use this opt-out whether the Red Sox brought the story or not based on the way he has played the last two seasons. He can get a big pay raise, and he should definitely go for it. But with a possible replacement already in the house, it’s hard to think that this does not make it more likely that he will step down instead of signing a new deal. My advice – and this is not pure speculation based on conversations with anyone in consciousness – is that it will depend on whether or not he changes position next year. He says he will not now, but the tone may be different next year after securing a major contract. If he does not, in my opinion he will go and that will be very contradictory to me.
- I’ve also seen some speculation that the Red Sox could replace Bogaerts before the season. I guess we should never say, but I would give that about a 0.5 percent chance. At the deadline when it seems like he is walking in the the Red Sox are out of contention? Sure, I could see that. But before the season comes a surprising ALCS spot? I do not see that happening.
- It’s also the thing of 40-man space to fit the story on the roster. James Paxton has already been transferred to the 60-day injured list to make way for Jake Diekman. They have two more injured pitchers could move. Bryan Mata will be out for the 60 days, but they decided not to make this move last year in the same situation to avoid accumulating service time. I’m not sure they think this year will be any different. There’s also Chris Sale, but they still have no super tight timeline out there, so it’s hard to tell if he’s out long enough to make that sense. If it was not a 60-day IL movement, I would look for someone like Hudson Potts, Jeisson Rosario or Austin Davis to be nominated for the job.
- I’ve seen some conversations about how this affects some of the top prospects in the Red Sox system like Marcelo Mayer and Nick Yorke. Maybe it makes them a little more likely to trade one of them, but they are also a few years away. It’s good for them to just keep evolving and get over the bridge of repetition when and when it comes. There are worse problems to be had than having several good players in one position.
- I would refrain if I did not address the complaints that this front office is cheap coming from here and elsewhere. There are still valid criticisms of this front office and how they think about money, I think, but the cheap complaints can go away a bit. They made a big signature, and that’s really what we asked for. Once again, this deal can be criticized. The Bloom thinking can be criticized. But “Tampa North” or whatever side you prefer must retire at least for a short time.
- All that said, the Red Sox still have to tackle it. Jackie Bradley Jr. is still, as it stands now, an everyday player in this formation. He does not need to be replaced by a middle-of-the-order hitter, as it seems he should be before this signing, but an upgrade still needs to be found. One like Wil Myers (in a trade where Boston also gets a perspective) or Tommy Pham could make sense as mid-level additions. They also need a late inning right, in my estimation. If they could find someone who could run less than five beats per nine innings, that would be great. And with the sale violation, looking for another starting pitcher should be on the priority list. I do not think they are desperate for another arm, but they should at least call. The story was a huge move and a needle move, but that does not mean it’s the end of offseason work.
Here are some links about the Cors home / road split.
538
Purple Rei
Lone Star Ball
The Athletic
MLB.com
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