Middle Tennessee vs. Abilene Christian Chance
The mid-Tennessee Blue Raiders will face Abilene Christian Wildcats in the CBI semifinals on Tuesday. The winner will face either Northern Colorado or UNC Wilmington in the CBI title game on Wednesday.
Central Tennessee is back and forth with Boston University for the first 10 minutes or so in its final game, but once the Blue Raiders ran to 10-0, it was the rest of the way all the way to central Tennessee.
MTSU won in a 76-46 blowout over the Terriers, and while it shot the ball incredibly well, the Blue Raiders defense is what extended the massive lead over BU.
Abilene Christian, meanwhile, has joined forces with Ohio on the wire. But after three Bobcats games failed and ACU won the free-kick competition in the second half, the Wildcats were able to come away with a victory.
These teams play two very different styles of basketball, and it will be interesting to see how a team can control the pace and force their basketball style in this matchup.
The MTSU defense has been impressive all season, ranking the nation 77th in matchmaking efficiency. The Blue Raiders kept their opponents at an average of just 67.1 points per game per year, but through two games at the CBI they were even better, both opponents at less than 60 points.
The Blue Raiders are a defensive team first; it’s what won them games every season. However, if they fit against ACU, they are also the better team at the offensive end of the court.
Central Tennessee ranks only 203rd and 3-point shooting and 74th and 2-point percentage, but is significant ahead of the Wildcats and both.
The Blue Raiders may be a better shooting team and better on defense, but there are still some weaknesses that the Wildcats can take advantage of when given the chance.
First and foremost are sales. MTSU averages a turnover of 19.2% of offensive players, per KenPom. The ACU defense, meanwhile, is leading the country to force sales, bringing it to 28.2% of defensive owners.
Abilene Christian was also able to score a foul with a game-changing rate. Opponents average 20 fouls per game against Wildcats.
Avoiding turnover and fouls will be the biggest focus for the Blue Raiders. If they can do that, it could be an easy win for MTSU.
The Wildcats are not very big on offense or defense, but they are aware of that. Knowing their weaknesses and strengths has been their biggest advantage throughout the season, and the Wildcats have come this far.
ACU is great from the free throw line, averaging 74.6% of the charity strip. As a result, it draws more fouls and takes more free-kick attempts than almost any team in the country.
The Wildcats are also not afraid to stop fouls themselves and put opposing teams – especially those who are not good at free kicks – on the line.
Abilene Christian is not a great shooting team, but he compensates for it with his blue pace (37th in Division I at the adjusted pace).
The Wildcats do not do well defending shots and therefore focus on stealing and implementing to throw an opponent’s rhythm. They rank second in the country in stealing percentage and are first in sales percentage.
The Wildcats know their game, and they play it well. If mid-Tennessee allows them to play their style, it could be the last of the Blue Raiders season.
Middle Tennessee vs Abilene Christian betting pick
Central Tennessee is the better team on both sides of the court, and I think it can slow down this game that ACU advantages against it will not be enough to get the win.
The Raiders may have been forced by the ACU to the full line, but they have been consistently there all season, averaging 74.8% of the charity streak.
ACU also hangs on free kicks, with 23.1% of its points off the line this season. MTSU has struggled overall with fouls this year, averaging 18.1 per game. But in his last two games during the CBI, he recorded 16 or less and both.
I think the Blue Raiders can continue to limit the foul, while also being the better team on both sides of the court.
I would return the Blue Raiders as high as a 2.5-point favorite here.
Select: Middle Tennessee -2.5 or better
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