Another defeat, another tournament gone, and another head-in-hands moment in the bemusing collapse of this iconic Manchester City team.
After a midweek mauling in Madrid, on Sunday they host Premier League leaders Liverpool and begin in the rare position of underdogs – already out of contention for the title and with 13 defeats in their past 26 games in all competitions.
By now the problems are almost too many to list.
An ageing and injury-hit squad are making uncharacteristic mistakes, waning confidence is leading to passive spells and the goal blitzes that follow, and key players are underperforming – in other words, all the issues on show as City froze at the Bernabeu on Wednesday.
But these are symptoms, not causes.
City’s malaise is a deep-rooted tactical problem that, as Pep Guardiola has acknowledged, encompasses not only the loss of historic tactical standards but the need to update and embrace the future.
Putting it bluntly, as Guardiola did after the first-leg defeat by Real Madrid: “It doesn’t work like it worked in the past.”
During City’s ongoing crisis Guardiola has taken to musing on tactical problems during press conferences, and a few weeks ago he hit on something particularly insightful.
Citing Bournemouth and Brighton, he said: “Today, modern football is not positional. You have to ride the rhythm.”
As the forefather of ‘juego de posicion’, the ‘positional play’ that has dominated world football since his Barcelona side won everything 15 years ago, this is a sizeable admission.
It poses a question bigger than this one article: is this the beginning of the end for the ‘Pepification’ of modern football?
Attacking quickly after a transition – when possession changes hands – is arguably overtaking Guardiola’s philosophy at elite level, with emphasis increasingly placed on direct football that runs deliberately in contrast to possession and territory.
While Liverpool have been successful this season with less chaos and more control than they had under Jurgen Klopp, and Tottenham’s rapid, linear football has come unstuck with a thin squad, the data is there.
Looking at Premier League statistics over the past eight seasons, since Guardiola’s first title in England, we can see a clear trend of increases in high turnovers, pressing – shown by passes per defensive action (PPDA) coming down – plus fast breaks and direct attacks.
It’s early days, but we have some evidence of Guardiola beginning to lean into an updated version of Manchester City.
He remodelled his first City team to dominate domestically. Then he refined that into a clinical, more physical Treble-winning machine – with Erling Haaland and a collection of giant centre-backs.
In the 3-1 victory over Chelsea in January it was striking how often City launched longer passes over the opposition defence, with new signing Omar Marmoush making numerous runs alongside Haaland.
Two in-behind runners in one forward line was a major departure for Guardiola. It was a tactical discovery he returned to in the 4-0 victory over Newcastle United last weekend, this time being used to bypass the visitors’ man-to-man press.
Marmoush’s opener from a long Ederson pass formed part of a wider pattern.
Everyone was talking about Ederson’s Premier League record for goalkeeper assists, but there is more to it than that.
City completed 39 long passes against Newcastle, their fourth-highest figure of the campaign and most since 2 November, while 30.2% of Ederson’s open-play passes were launched long, his second-highest percentage of the season.
But Marmoush wasn’t the only new signing to change things up.
Nico Gonzalez – “a mini-Rodri”, as Guardiola told BBC Sport – also squeezed the midfield again and dictated the tempo of play.
His numbers were pretty extraordinary: Gonzalez topped the game charts for touches (112), completed passes (100), pass accuracy (97.1%), and combined tackles and interceptions (4).
It might sound simplistic to put it all on Rodri’s injury absence, but it isn’t so much what Rodri gave Manchester City as what he represents – the decline that he symbolises, both on and off the ball.
On the ball, he brings control and order. That doesn’t just mean death by a thousand passes, but also bravely taking possession in tight spaces and releasing it, breaking the opposition press.
Off it, there is pressing and harassing the opposition, particularly just after City lose the ball (known as the counter-press) to shut down counter-attacks at source.
For a classic example, compare City’s home league games against Manchester United: this season a 2-1 defeat without Rodri, and last season a 3-1 win with Rodri.
In the 2023-24 derby, City held more possession (73% compared to 52% this season) and performed far better on shot count (27-3, compared to 10-10) – a difference explained almost entirely by Rodri.
Rodri made considerably more recoveries than his replacement for the same fixture in 2024-25, Ilkay Gundogan (8 to 3), and took 50 more touches (123 to 73).
It’s an almost weekly occurrence because, since Rodri’s injury, these two distinct but interrelated problems have infected every part of the pitch.
Manchester City’s possession, touches per 90 minutes, and passes per 90 have dropped significantly compared to last season, giving them less control of matches and, as Guardiola has said, diminishing their ability to “rest”.
“The problem is we don’t rest with the ball,” Guardiola told the Athletic after the first-leg defeat by Real Madrid. “In the big, big success of the team we were able to do 20, 25, 30 sequences of passes in the opponents’ half, and now we are not able to do it.”
A core principle of Guardiola’s philosophy is to recompress the shape and stay in those perfected positions, shutting off routes to counter – should the ball be lost – and setting up familiar pathways to find the route to goal.
To stay rigidly in those positions, or to get back into the regimental order after a difficult moment, you need those “rest” periods.
Without them City are spread out and a little more wild, hence their new vulnerability to fast breaks and individual errors from panicked defenders pulled out of position.
Comparing a Rodri-inspired 3-1 win at Brentford in 2023-24, when City had 72% of possession, to a chaotic 2-2 draw at Brentford without Rodri in 2024-25, when City had just 55% of the ball, we can see Guardiola’s side were far more compressed last season than this season.
Which brings us to the second part of the Rodri vacuum: defensive collapse.
City’s press has dropped, as has their ability to win the ball high.
What better evidence is there than Kylian Mbappe’s opener on Wednesday, when City pushed high but didn’t apply pressure to the ball, allowing Raul Asencio to clip one over the top.
That must be a real concern for Sunday, given the pace of Mohamed Salah and Luis Diaz in behind for Liverpool.
A less effective press and counter-press means City are worse at stopping fast breaks through the middle.
This season, their opponents have been allowed to hold the ball for longer periods unchallenged, giving them time to build their own pre-planned counters.
It fits with the eye test, with the unmistakable sense that Manchester City can be passive – either failing to press together, hence opponents cutting through them on the break, or just sitting back and letting the game pass them by.
A high defensive line without pressing effectively, and an ageing central midfield unable to cover ground to fill the gaps, is a recipe for disaster.
Personnel is also part of the problem – not just losing the metronome, but also Ruben Dias, Manuel Akanji and Ederson for chunks of the season – as is the “mental issue”, as Gundogan suggested after their Champions League play-off first leg when he said: “You can see that sometimes we miss the ball or lose a duel and you see that we drop immediately and lose the rhythm.”
Put it all together and what you get is the core tactical principles ripped out – by Rodri’s absence, or at least by what he symbolised – and the knock-on effect of uncontrolled football, including losing 50-50s, rushing out of defence to make an error, and attacking more quickly than Guardiola would like.
But the problem may go even deeper, to a more profound issue with tactical modernity – and Guardiola may already be working on a two-pronged fix.
Gonzalez provided what City have desperately wanted all season: control. Marmoush provided what they didn’t even know they needed: disorder.
It’s a pleasing counter-balance to reconnect with the past while driving into the future.
There are still areas for improvement, of course.
City’s wingers aren’t as lethal as they used to be. Haaland’s absence from the action outside the penalty area is an ongoing debate. The decline of Kyle Walker – now farmed out to AC Milan – has coincided with a tough year for Rico Lewis.
But fundamentally these are issues that ripple out from the epicentre, from the original earthquake that shook Manchester City off course.
If Gonzalez is the new Rodri, and if Marmoush helps to refine the strategy, then Guardiola might already be well on the way to reviving – and modernising – City’s tactics.
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