For the best summer travel deals, find out what’s popular and search around

Many Americans are looking forward to traveling this summer and looking for great deals. But this is not how the law of supply and demand usually works. With COVID-19 being the least threatening, air travel is almost back at pre-pandemic levels. Hotels fill up, and holiday rentals they are booming.

“Overall travel demand in the summer of 2022 has increased by 20% to 25% over 2019,” said Jamie Lane, vice president of research for AirDNA, a vacation rental data platform that makes tracking trends on Airbnb and Vrbo.

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Volatile oil prices could also affect summer travel costs. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the price of kerosene jet fuel on the U.S. Gulf Coast reached $ 3.77 per gallon in March, up from $ 0.46 per gallon. at its lowest point in May 2020.

With so many factors driving up travel prices, where are the deals? And what destinations should budget-conscious travelers avoid altogether?

Zig while others zag

Rising inflation has reminded consumers of a simple economic truth: when everyone wants something and it is not enough, prices go up. This is true for real estate, microchips and airline tickets.

Therefore, when planning a trip for this summer, it is helpful to know where demand is still high.

“Destination tourist areas have increased by 40% compared to 2019,” Lane said of holiday rental occupancy rates.

Mexico has been a particularly popular destination for American travelers, due to its proximity and easy testing requirements. In fact, the number of travelers to Mexico in March 2022 increased by almost 20% compared to 2019 levels.

There may still be deals for summer travel in Mexico, but it will be harder to find than in less popular destinations. The same goes for rural destinations in the United States, especially those close to national parks.

“The strongest demand is in rural areas of small towns,” Lane said. “Demand has doubled during 2019.”

Instead, Lane suggests targeting destinations that are heavily dependent on foreign visitors and have been slower to pick up tourists.

“Places like Croatia, Italy and Greece have been slow to recover and have dropped between 40% and 60% in demand. They haven’t seen the price increases we’ve seen in the US.”

Flight bookings in Europe fell after the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine, according to data from Hopper, a travel booking app, which suggests travel to the mainland could remain slow over the summer. This means that offers could (and should) be followed.

“A last minute booking in Croatia? You’ll find a great deal,” Lane said.

Book (some things) late

The pandemic has reshaped as many travelers make plans. Instead of consolidating dates months in advance, many began booking trips within a few weeks. And despite a lot of conventional travel wisdom, this approach is actually a good way to secure deals.

“Overall, if you book well in advance, you’ll pay more,” Lane said, noting how Airbnb’s pricing algorithm will lower prices at the last minute to fill the remaining availability. “As you get closer to the date of your stay, if you are not booked, you will get a discount.”

The same goes for hotels, which are often cheaper to book in a few weeks or days than a few months. Similarly, rental car deals are usually easier to find at the last minute.

This tip includes two great warnings. First, if demand exceeds supply at a given destination, prices could rise in the few weeks before a trip instead of going down. Worse, availability could dry out completely, leaving few cars or vacation rentals available.

Second, last minute plane tickets are usually more expensive. This is not a firm rule: last minute deals may appear, but they are more common for a month or more.

Be flexible

The only thing we don’t know is what will happen this summer. Another variant could arise. Borders could be closed. International conflicts could escalate. Who knows.

As a traveler, that’s why flexibility is a must to find deals.

Instead of making a firm plan to visit a particular destination, follow the offers. Check the ticket offers and accommodation available on scheduled dates and take a trip around them. Flexibility has always been important for budget travel. It is necessary now.

Be sure to book only trips that can be easily changed or canceled. A large supply of airline tickets with a low cost airline such as Spirit Airlines could result in high exchange and cancellation fees. The same goes for basic economy rates, which usually cannot be changed or canceled at all.

This article was provided to The Associated Press by the personal finance website NerdWallet. Sam Kemmis is a NerdWallet writer.