Warning over shrinking school meals as prices rise

School caterers could be forced to serve smaller portions or use cheaper ingredients due to rising prices, a major food wholesaler warns.

Bidfood chief Andrew Selley said caterers would face “difficult choices” if inflation soars.

It comes after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said rising food prices were a “major concern”.

However, the chairman of Marks & Spencer said he expects high inflation for a while.

Archie Norman told BBC Today: “I think it’s important to say before we panic too much that most of this inflation is likely to be temporary.”

Food prices have risen sharply in recent months as the pandemic and war in Ukraine have pushed up the cost of energy, shipping and raw materials.

Bidford’s Mr Selley said “all inputs into the food supply chain” have risen over the past nine months, putting pressure on the company, which supplies organizations including schools, hospitals and NHS trusts across the UK.

“We’re seeing things like sunflower oil, which is twice as expensive as it was a year ago, which has supplanted other oils like vegetable oil, canola oil and even palm oil. Baked goods are up 20-30%.”

Mr Selley called on the Government to ensure funding for free school meals keeps pace with soaring prices, saying they are “vital” to children’s “education and achievement”.

In 2020, 1.4 million children in England were entitled to free school meals – or 17.3% of the student body.

“Over the last 10 years, the amount of money the government is providing for free school meals has increased by just 1.7%, which appears to have been well below inflation even before the last 12 months,” Mr Selley said.

“We can see that school restaurateurs will make some difficult decisions [in the months ahead]. Either they might serve smaller portions or cheaper ingredients, which won’t be good for the kids.”

The Ministry of Education has been asked for comment.

Inflation – the rate at which prices are rising – is at a 30-year high of 7% and is expected to hit 9% when April figures are released on Wednesday.

The Bank of England has been criticized by MPs for not doing enough to deal with the rising cost of living, but the governor defended his response at a committee hearing on Monday.

He apologized for sounding “apocalyptic” and told MPs that the war in Ukraine was having a major impact on food supplies both in Britain and elsewhere.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty in this situation,” he added.

However, Marks and Spencer’s Mr Norman told the BBC he would not describe the situation as “apocalyptic”.

“Do you think oil prices will be higher or lower in a year? I don’t know, but there’s a good chance they will be lower. Freight rates will fall, wheat production in 2023 will likely fall higher than 2022,” he said.

“Before we do anything too drastic, we need to recognize that the problem we are dealing with is serious, but it’s probably a 12-month problem and not a 36-month problem.”

Mr Norman said that although higher prices were “very negative for consumers’ non-basic income”, wages in the UK had risen “quite well” and M&S had given its staff a 5% top-up.

The former Conservative MP said spending in the UK was “pretty good” as customers had “lots of accumulated savings”.

However, he acknowledged that things would get worse before improving as the energy price cap is expected to rise sharply again in October.

“The crisis will not be now, the crisis will be in the fall, when people come back from vacation, have spent their money and there is nothing left in the till.”