Climate change: EU unveils plan to end reliance on Russian gas

The European Commission has outlined a new energy roadmap that aims to reduce dependence on Russian gas by two-thirds in just one year.

The plan calls for ending reliance on all Russian fossil fuels “well before” 2030.

In the short term, gas should be sourced from the US and Africa, while some countries may need to use more coal in the coming months.

The EU is also proposing a massive ramp-up of renewables, biogas and hydrogen.

While CO2 emissions could increase in the short-term, the longer-term goal is a faster transition to sustainable sources.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put new focus on Europe’s dependence on the country for oil and gas.

The EU gets about 40% of its gas from Russia: according to research group Transport & Environment, this dependency amounts to about $118 million a day.

But at a speed few would have thought possible, the EU has now developed a strategy that could reduce dependency on this energy source by two-thirds within a year.

The REPowerEU plan aims to make Europe independent of Russian fossil fuels by 2030, but initial efforts are focused solely on gas.

In essence, the roadmap proposes finding alternative gas sources and increasing energy efficiency over the next few months, while moving towards greener energy sources in the medium to longer term.

“It’s tough, damn tough,” said EU Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans.

“But it is possible if we are willing to go further and faster than before.”

The Commission’s new proposals will make it a legal obligation for EU countries to ensure they have a minimum level of gas storage.

The aim is to have 90% of the gas reserves available by autumn, from around 30% at present.

Talks are underway with existing gas suppliers, including Norway, Algeria and Azerbaijan, to increase flows.

Another key focus in the coming months will be increased imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from suppliers such as the US, Qatar and Australia.

However, as Germany announces plans for two new LNG terminals to increase supply, some experts fear it could increase longer-term dependence on fossil fuels.

“I think we live in a difficult time where there is so much political pressure to make these energy policy decisions,” said Prof Paula Kivimaa from the Finnish Environment Institute and the University of Sussex.

“But we also have to look beyond the next few years. If Germany builds new LNG infrastructure, there is a risk that it will lock it up for the foreseeable future.”

In addition to the diversification of gas supply, the commission also believes that dependency on Russia will be reduced as new renewable energy projects are about to come online.

The EU says countries should try to use emissions trading scheme revenues, which have almost doubled since 2020, to pay for these green energy sources.

But dirtier energy sources like coal could also be needed in the coming months.

“There is some capacity in the power sector to generate more power from coal and biofuels, and there are also some new wind and solar products coming to market,” said Carol Torres Diaz, head of gas and power market research at Rystad Energy.

“So this could be a way to reduce some of the gas consumption as the power sector is the biggest gas user. This could happen as early as this year.”

Frans Timmermans recognized that it might make sense for some countries to switch to coal in the short term, but this could have its own difficulties. Europe gets around 30% of its coal from Russia.

Alternative supplies from countries like South Africa and Colombia are not easy to come by.

Any switch to coal would also quickly spike CO2 emissions, a trend that is already well underway.

“We’ve already seen an increase in emissions from coal over the past year because coal power generation has increased by 18%,” said Carlos Torres Diaz.

“If this continues, emissions will continue to rise in 2022 because coal power generation is more or less twice as emissions as gas generation.”

The Commission document also says renewable energy projects need to be accelerated and says there is huge potential in domestic rooftop solar power.

Up to a quarter of the block’s electricity use could be generated by panels in homes, farms and commercial buildings, the commission says.

To reduce dependence on natural gas from whatever source, the Commission is also calling for a massive increase in biogas, made from agricultural and food waste.

With the additional investments in renewable energy, this could also lead to a significant increase in green hydrogen, which can be produced from wind and solar energy.

The Commission is now calling for hydrogen consumption to quadruple by 2030.

“They would have been drawn to green hydrogen in that kind of timeframe for the next several decades, up to 2050,” said Mike Foster, chief executive of the UK trade organization Energy and Utilities Alliance.

“Actually, this crisis has brought it to a head, and you’ll probably be making decisions in the 2020s to move everything forward at least 10 years.”

There could well be some dissenting voices at a meeting of EU leaders later this week in Versailles. All of you will realize that all of these proposed changes will not come cheap.

Activists say Europe’s governments must ensure the poorest are protected.

“A huge package of support needs to be deployed in parallel with the imposition of sanctions to ensure they don’t deepen Europe’s ongoing energy poverty crisis and nobody has to choose between heating and eating,” Global Witness’ Mike Davis calls for a full oil and gas embargo on Russia.

“The need for everyone to be able to afford to heat their homes must come before concerns about economic growth.”

The Commission will encourage countries to use a toolkit of consumer protection measures, including windfall taxes on energy company profits.

But while the poorest may get some protection, there will be additional pain on the price front in the near term.

“I don’t see an easy way to protect consumers from the costs that this whole transition will entail,” Rystad’s Carlos Torres Diaz said.

Follow Matthias on Twitter @mattmcgrathbbc.