Russian President Vladimir Putin probably not “discovered” by the effect of coordinated economic sanctions by the West and the retreat of its military to Ukraine and will try to “escalate” his country’s aggression against Kyiv in the coming weeks, top US intelligence leaders said on Tuesday.
A “harmed” Putin is likely to “perceive this as a war that cannot be afforded to lose,” said National Intelligence Director Avril Haines, who, along with other intelligence chiefs, told the House Intelligence Community as part of an annual hearing on global threats.
She was joined by CIA Director William Burns, FBI Director Christopher Wray, Cyber Command Commander and NSA Director General Paul Nakasone, and Intel Agency Director Defense Lieutenant General Scott Berrier, who will appear again for additional testimony before the Senate intelligence community. Thursday.
Haines said Moscow had encountered “significantly more resistance” from Ukraine than expected, and that it would be “especially difficult” for Russians to maintain and control Ukrainian territory in the face of what would likely be a “persistent and significant insurgency.” “. ”
“It has no sustainable political end to what will continue to be fierce resistance,” the Ukrainian military said.
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Berrier, who heads the Pentagon’s military intelligence arm, said the Russian military had suffered “between 2,000 and 4,000” casualties: a “low confidence” assessment, he said, was extracted. of intelligence and open sources.
Burns, the director of the CIA, said that Mr. Putin had been for years in a “combustible combination of grievances and ambition” and had embarked on a military invasion based on a series of erroneous assumptions.
“It has been proven wrong,” Burns said, noting that the Russian leader’s views had “hardened” in recent years as he “isolated” himself from various points of view.
Burns added, however, that an “angry and frustrated” Putin would likely continue his military campaign without considering the civilian toll it could entail.
“It is likely to double and try to destroy the Ukrainian army without regard to civilian casualties,” he added, predicting “the next ugly weeks.”
He also said that Chinese President Xi Jinping and other political leaders were “concerned” about events in Ukraine, including how they had approached Europe and the United States. Beijing also became increasingly wary of the potential “reputation damage” that could be caused by its close association with Moscow, Burns said.
Berrier estimated that the Ukrainians would only have enough food and water to last “10 days to two weeks” once the supply lines were cut. “He’ll be a little desperate,” he said.
Haines said US intelligence agencies were watching “closely” any of Russia’s strategic and nuclear weapons movements, and acknowledged Putin’s decision to put his forces on high alert last month. it was “very unusual.”
“We’re not seeing anything at this stage that does anything different than it has been in the past,” Haines said. “We think he’s signaling, he’s trying to dissuade,” he said.
The intelligence community’s written annual report, released on Tuesday, assesses that Russia “does not want a direct conflict with US forces,” but considers that its nuclear capabilities are “necessary to maintain deterrence and achieve its goals in a possible conflict against the United States and NATO. ” . ”
“He sees a credible deterrent to nuclear weapons as the final guarantor of the Russian Federation,” the report said.
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- Ukraine
- Russia
- Vladimir Putin
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