If you’ve been digging around for flashlight batteries and adding candles to your shopping list, you’re not alone. Britain is worrying about power cuts for the first time in 50 years.
National Grid warns that while it remains an “unlikely” scenario, homes and businesses across England, Scotland and Wales could have their electricity cut for three hours each this winter.
If energy supplies across Europe continue to be squeezed because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, blackouts will become more likely. But other factors also play a role. So what can we expect?
President Putin appears to be long-term oriented in his confrontation with Europe over gas supplies. So the continent will ship it from elsewhere and cut where it can to keep the lights on.
But if there’s a cold snap that increases demand for gas, or worse, if it’s cold and it’s still dropping so UK wind turbines don’t deliver, then we have a problem.
In National Grid’s various scenarios for the coming months, the central view remains that there will be enough energy to keep up with previous winters.
But in a more extreme version of events, the gas supply could deteriorate. This is a problem for power generation, with 40% of UK electricity coming from gas fired power stations.
At this point, distributors may be forced to temporarily disconnect homes and businesses from the power grid. Anyone who remembers the 1970s knows what it was like.
Blackouts would be rotated so not all parts of the country would be affected at the same time or on the same day.
The outages would be more likely at peak times, either in the morning when millions of people get up with lots of kids and make breakfast, or, more likely, when the power goes out between 4 p.m. and 7 p.m.
That means you can get home from school or work, turn on the TV or console, charge your phone, or set the kettle on without turning on the WiFi.
You won’t get anywhere with vacuuming or washing either. And if you don’t have a gas stove, dinner is a sandwich.
Households could check if they are affected by logging on to powercut105.com and entering their zip code. According to National Grid, they would also be notified of planned power outages at least a day in advance.
People could also receive alerts, including via text messages, as they did at the height of the pandemic. And there could be Covid-style press conferences to update the public on the latest measures.
But none of this can happen without a say in government and, somewhat bizarrely, the monarch. King Charles would receive a recommendation from Business Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg and then approve the measure.
Hospitals with accident and emergency rooms and major airports would be protected from power outages.
Companies and services can apply to their network operator to be included in the so-called Protected Sites List in order not to be cut off, but this does not happen automatically. As such, the Energy Networks Association trade body recommends organizations that need protection status apply for it.
It also calls for prioritizing vulnerable households.
“We’re thinking, for example, of older people with chronic health conditions who need to stay warm,” says Caroline Abrahams, Charity Director at Age UK. “Or others who rely on electricity to run essential equipment, including home dialysis machines.”
The Energy Networks Association says customers who are medically dependent on power know what to do when a power outage occurs. This is because “power outages may occur from time to time during a typical year, including due to severe weather, for periodic maintenance, or due to damage and other routine disruptions.”
It says many people who depend on vital equipment have backup power sources, but advises those affected to seek advice from their healthcare provider.
National Grid insists power outages are a worst-case scenario. There are also some emergency measures.
Coal-fired power plants are on standby should additional generation be needed.
Starting next month, it’s also launching a program that offers households and businesses a financial incentive to reduce power consumption at key times. The program was tested earlier this year and is now being expanded.
This strategy could help avoid blackouts when there are days when supply can’t meet demand, by convincing some users to put off using their dishwasher or charging their electric car until more power is available.
National Grid believes that with such measures, supply disruptions can be avoided entirely. This way the candles can only be for the atmosphere.
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