The fall in headline inflation over the year through November should mark the start of a few months of decline. October’s four-decade high now appears to have been the high point. But inflation will remain very high in the coming months.
Even talking about a moderate rate of price increases does not seem to be compatible with everyday experience. On our visits across the country, everyone feels the sharpest tingles, and most people seem willing to talk about it.
I went to the Winter Wonderland fair and ice rink in Reading to test the rather cold floor. They think they’ve benefited from free entry, but the owner, Billy, tells me there are signs of severe shortages everywhere.
People who pay for their rides with credit cards and are looking for cheaper options for eating and drinking. Meanwhile, Billy’s family steps in to help with fair staff while other expenses soar.
“Fuel consumption has doubled in the last 12 months, but it’s slowly coming down. Gasoline prices have nearly tripled and show no signs of slowing down. The food stays sky-high… The drinks from the breweries are soaring.” he tells me.
Aside from auto fuel, none of the punters say they can sense a big change.
Even in the latest inflation numbers, food price increases hit a new 45-year high of 16.5%, as seen in stores. But it’s not just gasoline prices that are contributing to a slowdown in the inflation rate. Other commodity prices and transportation costs are on the way down.
The fall in used car prices – one of the first indicators of inflationary pressures last summer – is now accelerating. There are signs of a peak around the world, particularly in the US. The UK inflation rate is now lower than Italy and Germany but higher than France.
While consumers are still facing historic pressures from the cost of living, the Bank of England may feel able to slow rate hikes, especially given expectations that a recession has already begun.
Barring further shocks to the global economy, the worst could be behind us, at least on the charts. It will be many months before this becomes noticeable in normal households.
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