Covid in Scotland: Omicron sub-variant driving increase case numbers

Scotland’s record rates of Covid are being driven by a new variant of Omicron, the chief medical officer has said.

Professor Sir Gregor Smith said around 85% of cases in Scotland are thought to be of the BA.2 variant.

The World Health Organization has stated that BA.2 is more easily transmissible than the original Omicron strain BA.1, which emerged in Scotland in December.

However, there is no evidence that it is more serious.

Scotland’s remaining Covid restrictions, including the end of mandatory mask requirements in public buildings, are due to be lifted next Monday.

Prior to Nicola Sturgeon’s update to Holyrood on the matter, Prof Smith said a “cautious approach…is the right approach”.

Prof Smith told BBC Radio Scotland’s Good Morning Scotland that countries with the BA.2 subvariant had seen the ‘fastest and strongest increases in case numbers’.

He said Northern Ireland was the first British nation to have seen an increase in BA.2 and it now estimates around 1 in 13 people there have Covid.

“Scotland is probably the next country to see the biggest rise in BA.2,” said Prof Smith.

“Our share is currently around 85%. And you can see that the countries that have BA.2 right now are seeing the fastest and strongest increases in case numbers.”

He said England and Wales are now hearing the same thing. “In my view, it’s undoubtedly driven by the presence of BA.2,” he added

The Office for National Statistics on Friday estimated Scotland had the highest rate of Covid infection since sampling began in autumn 2020.

One in 18, almost 300,000 people had Covid in the previous week. The estimated number of infections had risen for six weeks in a row.

Figures released last Wednesday showed the number of people in Scottish hospitals with Covid was at its highest level in 13 months.

Experts said the number of intensive care patients is very low due to vaccinations and new treatments, but a large number of Covid patients is affecting bed availability and other services.

Prof Smith said he had been monitoring case numbers closely over the past three weeks.

“Obviously, when you see cases going up like that, it worries you a little bit,” he said.

Hospital occupancy began to rise around February 14, he added.

“We’re seeing more older people being affected on this occasion and that’s leading to some longer lengths of stay, which is also pushing up occupancy,” he said.

Prof Smith said there were “some hopeful signs” that the hospitalization rate “has started to spike a little over the last late last week”.

Ministers would shortly decide whether to proceed with the lifting of face mask rules, he said.

When asked what advice he would give ministers, he said: “I think a cautious approach is probably the right approach at this point and we’re already seeing the public embrace these extra safeguards.”

He said data from contact tracers showed some people were adjusting their behavior by reducing their contacts and avoiding busy places, while face mask use was also increasing.

But Sir Gregor said he could not predict when Covid-19 will become part of the background of everyday life.

“The only thing I have learned about this virus is above all not to become indifferent. It will evolve. It’s still at an unstable stage in its development,” he said.

“Until we have global stability of this virus, we cannot say we will have internal stability.”

Last week, Health Secretary Sajid Javid said the UK government had “no concerns at all” about subvariants.

He said Omicron was the last variant deemed to be of concern but the country had “successfully navigated it” but he said the government continued to monitor the situation “very carefully”.