Diggin ‘Deep: Use Your Sports Betting Market Knowledge To Help Predict March Madness Upsets | Butte

It’s the time of year when buzz and excitement around the office is high at all times and productivity is low at all times (except for the Montana Standard’s sports desk, of course).

In the days leading up to the first round of the tournament, everyone is furiously filling out their brackets and figuring out who their Cinderella team might be.

Other employees could just join the camaraderie, and there is nothing wrong with that. A common running joke every year is that the person who knows the least about college basketball finally wins the office bracket pool.

There is probably a good reason for that.

All the “college basketball experts” around the office spend hours researching teams and reading articles. In the end, they would all have read the exact same information and formed similar opinions.

The people around the office who “know nothing” are not part of the Echo Chamber, in which the “experts” are stuck.

As we all know, there are games that make no sense. A team that did not consider anyone at the start of the tournament will nominate a title contender. It seems to happen every year, especially now that teams are so dependent on the 3-pointer.

But sometimes there are indicators for which 13 seeds have the chance to shed a 4 seeds. Or maybe it’s a 12 seed that eliminates a 5 seed.

Since this is a column for sports betting, you can probably see where I’m going with this … the lines!

Significant line motion is a great reference point when trying to pick a live underdog.

Or maybe, the lack of a line move can get you from a team that considers everyone else as a potential Cinderella. If a point spread keeps steady and shows no movement towards the dog, even if that team takes a lot of action, perhaps the favorite is the way to go.

Line moves that deserve strong consideration a point or more and are preferred within 10. If a 25-point favorite becomes a 23-point favorite, I probably would not expect an upset yet. And I’m not saying that half points are not important in sports betting. Every little thing matters when betting these lines. However, we are talking about filling in a bracket, not picking against the spread.

The Spartans opened as two-point favorites Sunday and the line is as low as pk in some places. Strongest casinos hang Michigan State -1 but some offshore books have these two teams dead even. Ken Pomeroy (kenpom.com) also has these two teams on just about even. In addition to the strength of the schedule, where Michigan State obviously has a big advantage in the Big Ten, there are some numbers that point in the direction of victory for Davidson. The Wildcats are 11th in the country in adjusted offensive line, and are 304th in adjusted pace. If Davidson controls the game, it will make the Spartans much slower than they want to be. If Davidson can hit a few shots and get an early lead, the reduced number of owners will make it difficult for Michigan State to make a run and mount a comeback. Also, KenPom has Michigan State as a much happier team than Davidson this season, so we also expect some positive declines in favor of Davidson. I have the cats that are advancing.

It’s America’s favorite underdog, Loyola Chicago’s Fighting Sister Jeans. When lines were released Sunday, bettors could not get to the window fast enough to take Loyola to Ohio State. The line, which opened at a pick ’em, climbed all the way down to -1.5 with Loyola as the favorite. Since then, it has been the Buckeyes who have taken the most of the action. According to Pregame.com, 73% of tickets are in Ohio State along with 84% of the money. If the percentage of cash is greater than the percentage of tickets, that is the side that takes big bets from sharp groups with deep pockets. Of course, no result is absolute, but there is something to note. My guess is that the Ramblers will be one this year.

The roadmap for UAB – which now stands at eight points after opening as nine-point underdogs – is pretty clear here. On average, almost 70 possessions per 40 minutes (80th in the country), the Blazers will try to run the Cougars, who on average only shy of 64 owners per game (333rd in the country) run from the ground. UAB standout Jordan Walker has the ability to warm up from the outside, and that will certainly have to be the case to pull off this excitement. When Walker and the Blazers shoot Houston out of the gym, they win. If they do not and Houston is able to play his desired style, it probably is not close. But I think there is enough variance in the game to back UAB.

Matthew Kiewiet is the Sports Editor for the Montana Standard and Sports Betting Columnist for 406MTSports. Email him at matthew.kiewiet@406mtsports.com or follow him on Twitter @ mattkiewiet406.