{"id":21407,"date":"2022-04-13T16:06:10","date_gmt":"2022-04-13T16:06:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tahrir2day.com\/news\/2022\/04\/13\/where-does-boris-johnsons-fine-leave-the-scottish-tories\/"},"modified":"2022-04-13T16:06:10","modified_gmt":"2022-04-13T16:06:10","slug":"where-does-boris-johnsons-fine-leave-the-scottish-tories","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tahrir2day.com\/news\/2022\/04\/13\/where-does-boris-johnsons-fine-leave-the-scottish-tories\/","title":{"rendered":"Where does Boris Johnson’s fine leave the Scottish Tories?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross is now backing Boris Johnson despite the Prime Minister being fined for attending a party during lockdown. Mr Ross has been on a journey that has put him at odds with his predecessor Ruth Davidson – but has he taken the rest of his group with him and could he change his position yet again?<\/b><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Boris Johnson has always been a bit of a problem for Scottish Conservatives.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Observant observers of the Holyrood 2021 election may recall that the Prime Minister attended exactly zero Tory campaign events, while his face was spattered on the front of most SNP leaflets. It was clear which party saw him as an electoral advantage.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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And even before Partygate, Douglas Ross was eager to put clear blue water between himself and Mr. Johnson. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Although he backed the winner in the final round of the 2019 Conservative leadership election, his initial support was for outsider Mark Harper.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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He then resigned from a post in the Scottish office over another lockdown series – Dominic Cummings’ road trip – in what many saw as a calculated precursor to a leadership bid north of the border.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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It was therefore not entirely unexpected when he was among the first Conservative MPs to call for Mr Johnson’s resignation through Downing Street parties, calling his position “unsustainable” and tabled a formal letter of no confidence.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Mr Ross may have backed himself into a corner with his earlier comments on Nicola Sturgeon, calling for the First Secretary to resign before a series of inquiries into her compliance with the Ministerial Code had been completed – and before she had even testified.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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But political calculations were certainly also involved. Public sentiment was in a dark place in January with some Covid restrictions still in place and the depths of lockdown fresh in memories.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Mr Johnson’s popularity in Scotland is well established and from an electoral perspective any risk in the move was mitigated by the fact that it is unlikely that genuine Johnson supporters would turn back and vote for the SNP or Labour.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Two months is a long time in politics. By March, Mr Ross had withdrawn his calls for Mr Johnson to resign and his letter of no confidence.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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This was allegedly due to events in Ukraine, with Mr Ross saying discussions about a leadership contest should be “paused while there is a war in Europe”.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Certainly the heartbreaking images reflecting back from the war zone, with allegations of war crimes and genocidal flights, dwarfed the politicians’ squabbling here by comparison. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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But it was also clear by this point that any momentum behind efforts to oust the prime minister had fizzled, as the Met police’s belated intervention had thrown potentially damning internal reports into the long grass.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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That delay meant the trickle of backbenchers calling for his resignation did not swell into a flood, and with the lifting of Covid restrictions it seemed Mr Johnson’s trademark of sitting out a scandal until another story emerged had worked .<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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With the two leaders due to appear together at a Scottish Tory conference on a stage adorned with banners reading ‘Forward Together’, again it was no great surprise when the about-face came.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The awkwardness of that handshake in Aberdeen was compounded by the arrival of a stipulated penalty at 10 Downing Street. But with no end to the war in sight, Mr. Ross once again finds himself somewhat constrained by his own words.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Mr Ross has certainly been on a trip, but did he take his group as a whole?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Initially calling for Mr Johnson’s resignation, the leader was quickly followed by the vast majority of his MSPs, who tweeted similar sentiments in a fairly choreographed display of support.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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There have been clashes with the Prime Minister’s entourage, with Jacob Rees-Mogg writing Mr Ross off as an “easy figure”, but really the only Scottish Tory voice in support of the Prime Minister was Scottish Secretary Alister Jack.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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After Mr Ross changed his position, there were tweets again from senior MSPs \u2013 like that of Murdo Fraser I Agree<\/a> that it would be “deeply irresponsible to try to change the prime minister when the international situation is as it is”.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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But there is uneasiness within the party about the position and the painfully awkward manner in which it came about – particularly given the time members are spending on their doorsteps as part of the election campaign.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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‘Wouldn’t you rather talk about rubbish collection’ won’t do \u2013 grassroots Tory activists and candidates face as many painful questions on this as the Prime Minister himself, and they know it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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That uneasiness is underscored by former Chairwoman Ruth Davidson, who held on to her guns and continued to call for Mr Johnson’s head.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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She managed to court side-by-side with Mr Ross in Edinburgh on Wednesday, but not without an elephant in the room. If Mr Ross thinks Vladimir Putin would welcome the Prime Minister’s removal, has he then told Ms Davidson that she is helping the Kremlin?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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What’s next?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Mr. Ross’ position is essentially “now is not the time”. Some in Scottish politics may recall Theresa May using that phrase as an outright ‘no’ to an independence referendum, but it seems Mr Ross really does mean ‘maybe later’.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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His stance is reminiscent of other ex-rebel letter writers such as Sir Roger Gale, who supports Mr Johnson in the immediacy – but add<\/a> that he cannot lead the Tories to the next election.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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This begs the question, why would anyone think someone unfit to be prime minister when there’s not much going on – other than a struggling recovery from a global pandemic and a crippling cost-of-living crisis – but thinks they’re up to the job after all and virtually unassailable when war breaks out in a friendly country.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Mr Ross has decided not to try to square that circle, but to dump the toughest questions on Mr Johnson’s doorstep. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In particular, he says the Prime Minister must explain to MPs how his previous statements to Parliament may coincide with reality confirmed by the Met Police.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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So, will the Scottish Tory leader change his position yet again and extend his about-face to a full circle?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Opportunities to do so should abound as there are many ways the situation could develop. Mr Johnson is by no means over the hill.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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For starters, more fines could be imposed as police work their way through a long list of parties one by one.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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After these investigations are complete, we will see a full report from Officer Sue Gray. She may be part of the government, but she didn’t pull any punches in her interim results, criticizing “failures in leadership and judgment.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Parliament is in recess right now – not necessarily a good thing for Downing Street as Tory MPs spend their days with angry voters rather than the whips in Westminster – but when it reconvenes there will surely be fireworks .<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The Lib Dems are pushing for a formal no-confidence vote which Mr Johnson would likely survive – but only through the acute discomfort of his own backbenchers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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And then there are the local elections in May. If the Tories kick the ballot box, it could be the catalyst for skeptical MPs to claim \u201cthe people have spoken\u201d and reorganize their rebellion. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Indeed, in Scotland, Mr Ross could effectively use Mr Johnson as a shield for his own leadership in the event of poor results and resume calls for his head at that point.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Each new development may feel like an endgame, but this dispute still has weeks and maybe months to go.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n