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China lockdown: What do zero-Covid policies mean for UK prices?

Major Covid lockdowns hit some of China’s biggest cities this spring, disrupting the country’s economy.

However, it is not just people in China who will be affected.

As one of the world’s largest exporters, any halt to production could impact prices for consumers around the world, including Britain, which imported nearly £70bn worth of goods from China last year.

China produces more than a third of the world’s electronic goods.

Mobile phones are one of the main categories of goods that the UK buys from China. Between 2020 and 2021, the UK imported £7.3 billion worth of telecoms and audio equipment.

Several companies that supply components to Apple — Pegatron, Quanta Group and Compal Electronics — have had to close factories in the Shanghai area due to Covid lockdowns.

According to an analysis by the investment company Wedbush Securities, the production of three million iPhones was already affected by mid-April, with follow-up effects on iPads and MacBooks expected.

Chinese telecom giant Huawei has also delayed the opening of a new computer chip (or semiconductor) factory in Shanghai.

The city produces about a third of all computer chips in China, while the neighboring province of Jiangsu produces about 10%.

The sector already had supply problems last year due to a surge in demand.

Lockdowns could also affect production of computers and printers.

This is not only due to delays in exports, but also because China needs to import key materials to make the semiconductors in these devices.

Covid restrictions mean deliveries to Europe have been delayed by an average of seven days, says Alicia Garcia-Herrero of Brussels think tank Bruegel.

Curry’s PC World told the BBC the impact of lockdowns in terms of product availability has not yet been leaked. But it said it now sees rising costs caused by transportation problems in China.

China has tried to keep some factories running and ports open by keeping key workers on site, although reports say Shanghai – the world’s largest container port – is still not operating at normal capacity.

Lockdowns have also increased shipping times as Chinese companies have started sending their products through alternative, more distant ports.

Joris Teer of The Hague Center for Strategic Studies says retailers in the UK can temporarily resist price increases, but if costs keep rising in China consumers will eventually have to pay more.

The UK doesn’t buy many cars direct from China, but does buy a lot from the EU, with the bloc accounting for more than 80% of UK vehicle imports in 2020.

However, car production in the EU is heavily dependent on Chinese-made components – for example, most German tires and brake pads are made in China, according to China officials.

Production areas such as Guangdong, Jilin and Shanghai have all been under various lockdowns in recent months.

Like electronic goods, car production was also affected by the global chip shortage last year. The industry is now also having to deal with transport delays and backlogs due to lockdowns.

Prices for some of the UK’s most popular cars were already up by up to 26% in March compared to three years ago, according to a car buying website.

Garcia-Herrero says if China hikes prices because of rising costs from lockdowns, “the UK consumer will end up paying for it”.

Clothing is the fourth largest category of goods imported by the UK from China.

According to official figures, Jiangsu Province, 250km north of Shanghai, accounts for over 12% of China’s garment production.

Although many factories have remained open by keeping workers in a “closed-loop” system, transportation issues have impacted exports. In April, the province closed more than 100 tollbooths on the main roads to Shanghai and other major export hubs due to Covid restrictions.

A Primark spokesman told the BBC that “to date we have managed to minimize any disruption as a result of the lockdown in Shanghai”.

UK clothing and footwear prices rose 9.7% in the year to March 2022, according to the Office for National Statistics – with price increases due to global pressures on supply chains and energy costs, according to the UK Treasury.

China is a major producer of chemicals used around the world, and major global chemical manufacturers have plants in the Shanghai area.

For the UK, they represent the fifth largest category of imports from China, and one of the most commonly used chemicals is bleach.

Some of the key players in the industry have said they have been able to keep factories open, but they are not always operating at full capacity.

Unilever, which makes brands like Cif cleaning products and Domestos bleach, increased the prices of its home care products by 12.5% ​​in April.

A Unilever spokesman told the BBC that while raw material costs are now at their highest levels in a decade, lockdowns in China have had relatively little impact so far.

“We have an agile supply chain that is used to dealing with disruptions.”

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