The leaders of the Brics Group are meeting this year amid major shifts in the geopolitical order.
The group, which owes its name to the initials of its five member states – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – will hold its annual summit on Thursday, but without much fanfare or high expectations.
The talks will also be held in a virtual format for the third consecutive year. The last two took place during the Covid pandemic, but it’s not clear why leaders have skipped face-to-face meetings this year.
It stands in stark contrast to the Quad – which groups India with Australia, Japan and the US – whose leaders met in person in Japan last month amid global media glamor.
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Some analysts say that’s partly because the Brics haven’t really lived up to expectations over the years. When it was founded in 2009, the group was tasked with transforming the world economy and creating a new financial order to help developing countries.
Its success can be described as moderate at best, but its importance cannot be overstated. The Brics Nations have a combined population of 3.23 billion and their combined GDP is more than $23 trillion.
“The Brics may seem irrelevant because they haven’t really made any headway in their long-standing efforts to introduce viable global economic alternatives to the US-led existing system,” says Michael Kugelman, associate director of the Wilson Center Think-Tank in Washington.
But he adds that writing off the Brics will be a mistake because of their collective economic power, “although they often tend to punch under their weight.”
The economy has always been the focus of the Brics, but the war in Ukraine is likely to top Thursday’s summit.
Nations may not openly mention the war, but it will definitely be discussed as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro speak.
Pratyush Rao, director for South Asia at consultancy Control Risks, says Ukraine will undoubtedly be the elephant in the room.
“Many people will be keeping an eye on the summit, especially the dynamic between Russia and China over Ukraine,” he says.
While China was more open about its support for Russia, India, South Africa and Brazil tried to walk the diplomatic tightrope over the war. You have not openly criticized Russia, but have advocated talks to end the war.
But a lot has changed since the beginning of the war. The economic fallout from the war and Western-led sanctions is being felt around the world – inflation has risen in many countries, global supply chains have been disrupted and there are fears of food shortages.
Russian commentators have spoken about the importance of the Brics nations in mitigating the impact of the sanctions.
Mr Rao says some resistance to Western sanctions can be expected at the summit and that will be reassuring for Russia.
“But it should not be interpreted as condoning Russia’s actions,” he adds.
However, Brics members want to be seen as an initiative to help developing countries overcome the economic impact of war.
“I expect the summit to underscore the global importance of the group because of their collective demographic and economic impact. I also expect it to help poorer and middle-income countries build resilience to the economic impact of the Ukraine crisis,” says Mr. Kugelman.
But then there will be challenges within the group. Beijing and Moscow could agree to take harder lines against the West, but Delhi does not want the summit to be used to openly criticize the US and the West in general.
Delhi prides itself on its “strategic autonomy” and non-aligned policy, and has proven that it can be a significant member even in competing multilateral fora.
“India has an independent strategic policy and an independent, autonomous voice on the global stage and does not wish to compromise,” said Mr. Rao.
Both Russia and China have criticized the Quad as “Asia’s Nato,” but that hasn’t stopped Delhi from pledging its support for the group’s initiatives in the Indo-Pacific region, which Beijing sees as its sphere of influence.
Analysts say Russia and China will most likely overlook these irritations in pursuit of the larger goal of establishing the Brics as a viable financial institution to help developing countries, while remaining relevant even in the rapidly changing geopolitical order.
Meanwhile, there are reported disagreements between Delhi and other members over the Brics’ expansion.
Bloomberg news agency recently reported that Delhi will oppose Beijing’s plan to add new members to the group.
“India does not want to see more members in a group where China plays a dominant role. India will fear more Chinese influence,” says Mr. Kugelman.
The success of the summit will also depend on how the two countries manage their differences on this and other issues, including their ongoing border disputes.
Both Mr. Kugelman and Mr. Rao believe the two nations are able to overlook their differences when it serves their mutual interests.
They are partners in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, an eight-nation alliance, and also worked together at the COP26 summit to oppose the adoption of tough emissions reduction targets.
With this in mind, Ukraine may be a convergence point for the Brics. It can serve as an opportunity for the group to convince the world that it can be a viable financial option against Western-led institutions like the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.
As such, some concrete announcements of grants and further investment in the Brics-led New Development Bank are to be expected.
And analysts say it would be a step in the right direction for the Brics to gain traction as a serious global player.
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