US food prices are rising at the fastest rate since the 1970s, with food prices rising 13.5% in the 12 months to September.
With the November elections approaching and wages failing to keep up, shoppers are feeling the pain. So when will it get easier – and will high prices affect voting behavior?
A carton of eggs costs more than $3 in the US today, more than double what it was in early 2021 when US President Joe Biden took office. Beef and chicken prices are up almost 20% and a bunch of bananas are up 10%.
“It’s very tough,” says 78-year-old Edda Charbon. The New Yorker says she often puts back items she used to buy on the shelves, shocked at how much they cost. “Even frying eggs – such a small thing can cost a lot.”
Price spikes began during the pandemic as restaurant food plummeted, food demand soared and Covid outbreaks caused production problems.
Companies passed on the higher costs they faced, such as higher wages and more expensive fuel.
Then, this year, the war in Ukraine cut off supplies of fertilizers, wheat and other crops, sending global prices skyrocketing. Bad weather has resulted in poor harvests, while bird flu outbreaks have impacted egg supplies.
While restaurant prices have historically only gone in one direction — up — food prices sometimes fall.
But to do this, supply must be reconciled with demand.
There was some good news on that front. Global food prices have fallen in recent months, while oil prices have also fallen.
And with many like Edda cutting back or switching to cheaper items, it could also make it harder for food companies, which pass higher costs on to customers while also posting big profits, to raise prices.
It’s still unlikely to mean relief any time soon. Many companies, including Coca-Cola and Cheerios-maker General Mills, told investors over the summer that they expect prices to rise further through the end of the year.
“The future is very uncertain,” says Jayson Lusk, an agricultural economist at Purdue University. “To the extent that we see lower soft commodity prices and lower energy prices — that will certainly help, but there are many costs that come after the farm — like labor and other issues, and those are harder to predict.”
Meanwhile, Americans consistently cite the economy and rising prices as top concerns — and a growing number say they are unhappy with President Joe Biden’s performance, Republicans in particular.
“He hasn’t done a great job,” says Romeisha Lowery, a 36-year-old former Trump voter from Texas, who says the rising cost of groceries, gas and other things has prompted her family to seek help with food supplies recently search months.
“I feel like we’ve been a lot poorer over the past two years than we were under the Trump administration.”
Mr. Biden has attempted to respond by releasing unprecedented amounts of oil to drive down gas prices. On food, he has ordered investigations into competition in the meat industry, increased support for farmers to buy fertilizer and hosted a summit on nutrition and hunger.
Democrats also passed what they called the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. But while it might have been wise policy to claim it was about curbing inflation, most analysis points to the law — which earmarks billions for the fight against climate change and a new minimum tax exempts companies among other things – have negligible impact on inflation.
Republicans have seized on inflation as a winning theme, with ads like that of Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon serving his wife what he calls “Biden burgers” — tiny hamburgers he attributes to high prices forcing people to economize.
The midterm elections, slated for November and which will determine who controls Congress and many states’ leaders, are notorious for relatively low turnout, with parties focused on boosting turnout among their core supporters.
The president’s party typically loses seats. But many Democrats hope that the elections will not be as bad as once feared, even though the economy is working against it.
For one, there are fewer competitions this year than in previous elections.
For the Democratic grassroots, polls also suggest that inflationary concerns from the abortion fight — which returned to the spotlight after the Supreme Court struck down constitutional abortion rights in June — as well as worries about democracy more generally, some are attributing , were overshadowed by former President Donald Trump’s involvement in politics.
For Republicans, the economy remains key, especially as gasoline prices — which are bigger than food prices in the public imagination — have started ticking higher after this summer’s drop. But candidates are also focused on issues that appeal to their grassroots, like immigration.
“It’s too risky to just bet on gas prices,” says pollster Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Poll. “The perception of that is changing … and you don’t want to be caught as a one-issue activist.”
Polls show that views on the economy are heavily tied to political leanings, with the right tending to see inflation as important – and the problem as worse.
Mr Miringoff said many voters had already made up their minds – and that parties would focus on “raising the stakes” to force their supporters to vote: “We won’t see much persuasion or change of mind. We’re going to see efforts to improve the language.”
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