House prices in the UK will fall by 8% over the next year and then almost flat over the next four years, Lloyds Banking Group predicts.
The UK’s largest mortgage lender, which operates the Halifax brand, gave a bleak outlook for the UK economy.
It has set aside £668m to cover bad debts as rising interest rates make borrowing and mortgages less affordable.
The banking group announced £1.5 billion of pre-tax profit for the third quarter of the year.
That was a 25% decrease compared to the same period last year.
Banks typically make more money when interest rates rise because the gap between what they pay savers and what they charge borrowers widens, but the rapid rise in borrowing costs over the past year has the bank more gloomy made in relation to the macroeconomic outlook for the UK.
However, most of its mortgage customers would be able to withstand the pressure on the cost of living.
“So far, at least, our customers have proven resilient and have adapted well to the rising cost of living,” said the bank’s chief financial officer, William Chalmers.
“We consciously ensure that we lend to clients who are best placed to withstand potential future stresses at the macro level and in their own personal circumstances.”
Customers facing arrears, defaults and write-offs remained low and below pre-pandemic levels, the bank said.
Mr Chalmers added that Lloyds’ lending was aimed at “slightly better off” customers to ensure they could repay their loans if conditions got tougher.
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The Bank of England benchmark interest rate is 2.25% and Lloyds warned that it could peak at 4% in 2024 before falling back.
Mr Chalmers acknowledged that this environment of higher interest rates could lead to a slowdown in the housing market in the coming years.
An 8% drop in house prices risks some buyers falling into the red recently, especially if prices don’t recover for some time.
However, such a drop would not fully offset last year’s rise in house prices. The latest data from the Office for National Statistics shows that the price of an average UK home rose 13.6% to £296,000 in the year to August.
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