The government’s “leveling” and “net-zero” targets are at risk if too many capital spending cuts are made in the autumn statement, its chief infrastructure adviser has warned.
The head of the National Infrastructure Commission told the BBC it was crucial that the government stick to its policy.
Sir John Armitt said cutting the HS2 rail route was “stupid”.
Last week the government confirmed that many infrastructure spending will be reviewed.
On Thursday, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is due to deliver his autumn statement – a budget in everything but name – and he has already said he faces decisions of “amazing difficulty”.
Speaking to the BBC, Sir John said: “We are clearly in a very difficult situation. The Chancellor faces real challenges and it is therefore understandable that there may be some pressure on the infrastructure.
“On the other hand, infrastructure is seen as an economic driver for many parts of the country, especially those parts of the country that are on the up.
“It’s so important that the government doesn’t flip, it sticks to its ambitions, it sticks to its policies so that the private sector brings in a lot of capital, which creates jobs and opportunities.
“To be honest, cutting HS2 would be very silly,” he added. “I think you made massive investments in what happened in Birmingham before HS2 – it just shows what can happen. And of course Manchester now sees investment behind HS2 as well. I think that would be a very strange decision.”
He said that the system and the integrated railroad check are “very important for the upward leveling”.
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Some economists expect the government to cut capital spending on Thursday as it has historically been viewed as the easiest spending item for the Treasury to shift.
There was also a relative increase in investment spending at the very beginning of this Parliament under Boris Johnson’s initial term to over £70 billion a year in net public sector investment.
But Sir John disputed the idea there had been an infrastructure boom, saying: “If you look at the numbers there has been a fall in investment in recent years, not a surge. There has been talk of an upsurge and that’s why it’s important to maintain this belief that there has to be an upsurge.”
With the COP27 climate talks still ongoing, Sir John also expressed concern about delivering the investment needed to reach net-zero carbon emissions targets, saying the UK risks falling behind other countries.
“If everyone followed the guidelines, we would reach net zero. In the actual delivery, we fall down. So we can’t afford to take our foot off the pedal or we’ll have to keep going. We won’t reach net zero.”
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